Thursdays in the NBA almost always mean fewer games than any other night of the week, but that doesn’t mean our betting options are limited. Tonight there’s certainly value to find with some key players sidelined in a couple of matchups.
We’re breaking down three prop-bets for Thursday’s slate, using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the listed lines across multiple books (though, there’s one book with the best odds for all three).
Let’s dive into the top plays for tonight’s games.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Stephen Curry, Over 32.5 PTS + REB (-105)
|Warriors vs. Bucks||Bucks -1.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
The Golden State Warriors will not have Draymond Green for their matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks. Green hasn’t been available for the Warriors for (technically) three games and the Warriors’ offense has run through Curry even more while he’s been sidelined.
Green is their leading assist man with Curry not so far behind. According to our FantasyLabs On/Off Tool, when Curry and Green share the floor, Curry has a modest 26.2% Assist Rate this season. His Assist Rate jumps to 30.4% with Green off the floor, which, over a full season, would be on par with LeBron James’ Assist Rate for the season. Our very own Matt Moore went into great detail about how much better a passer Curry has been this season.
As far as scoring, Curry hit a bit of a slump recently but has rebounded in his past two games, both without Green. With Klay Thompson back, I don’t expect the Bucks to load up on Curry as much as they would if he was out there alone.
His points prop is listed at 26.5 and our projections have him going well over that number. But I prefer his combo prop because I expect his assists to stay high enough to clear this number. Our projections have him over 38 combined points and assists and at -105, this feels like a good value play.
Devonte’ Graham, Over 4.5 AST (+130)
|Clippers vs. Pelicans||Pelicans -3.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
I’m playing this prop mostly because the odds are too good to pass up.
Graham averages 4.6 assists and 9.0 potential assists on the season, per NBA Advanced Stats, both second-most for the Pelicans behind Brandon Ingram. His prop is listed at 4.5 and the over is plus-money. Graham has topped this number in 17 of his 38 games, which averages out to about 44.73% implied odds or +123.
Our prop projections expect Graham to get 5.1 assists and we’re essentially betting Graham to reach his season average with a slight edge. Caesars has the best line at +130, while the rest of the market is around +125. I really like this play and so do our projections, which rate this bet as a nine out of 10.
Nassir Little, Over 1.5 STL + BLK (+110)
|Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets||Nuggets -10.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | TNT|
The Portland Trail Blazers are having a rough season, to say the least, with both their star players out for the foreseeable future. A few players on their roster have been given the opportunity to step up, including Nassir Little.
Since Little has entered the starting lineup, his major statistical numbers have essentially doubled compared to his career stats — 10.4 PPG up from 5.4 and 6.1 RPG up from 3.3. Little has averaged 1.3 blocks per game over this stretch and 0.5 steals and has gone over this Steals + Blocks number in six of his 14 starts.
Per NBA Advanced Stats, he leads the Trail Blazers in contested shots (7.3) by a comfortable margin and the Nuggets have been sloppy with the ball of late allowing 8.9 opponent steals per game, 29th in the NBA over the past 10 games.
His blocks prop is just 0.5, and considering how well he’s been playing, it’s not a bad play either. However, at -130 odds, I think it’s more worth it to play the blocks and steals prop and bet that he gets two in either category or one in both. Our tool projects Little to get 2 Stocks and rates this an eight out of 10.