After a monster holiday feast of games on a 13-match Wednesday slate, we’re down to only three games tonight.
So instead of spreading our picks across the three games, we’re going all in on the Jazz vs. 76ers matchup with three props. You can play these props individually if you like, or you can choose to go all-in on a Same Game Parlay if your book allows it. Playing the three props below as an SGP at FanDuel using the more aggressive one for Seth Curry comes off at +1387, if you’re up for it.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props. You can also see one play from each of the other two games noted briefly at the bottom.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Rudy Gobert, Over 13.5 rebounds (+124)
|Jazz vs. 76ers||Jazz -3|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Our Props Tool loves every Rudy Gobert over tonight, from points to rebounds to assists or blocks. I’m keeping it simple though, in part because we can’t play combo lines in a Same Game Parlay, and in part because I just trust Rudy’s rebounds by far the most.
Gobert is leading the league in rebounding right now at 14.5 RPG. That’s a career-high rate for Gobert and it’s a full rebound above last year’s season total. It’s also above this alternate line at FanDuel.
So why the discrepancy? Joel Embiid, of course, is the obvious answer to that. And Embiid is a big part of the reason I’m staying away from some of the other Gobert stats tonight. But Rudy’s rebounding has held steady against Embiid, with 12.4 RPG against the Cameroonian over the last five seasons.
Even better, Gobert’s offensive rebounding has taken a leap against Embiid. He’s averaging 5.0 offensive boards per game against Embiid, way up from his typical 3.3 ORPG during that stretch against other teams.
That makes sense stylistically. Embiid is an aggressive defender, which sometimes puts him out of position on the glass against an elite rebounder like Gobert. Philly also plays slow with Embiid so Gobert knows he can crash the glass without worrying about getting back as quickly on defense.
We’re projecting Gobert at 15.8 rebounds, well over this number and close enough that you might consider playing Gobert’s 16-plus rebounding total at +255 if you want to be especially aggressive. I’ll stick with the 14-plus alternate over since Gobert has done that in 14 of 24 games this year and it’s only one rebound higher than his traditional over-12.5 line at -120.
I’ll play the over 13.5 rebounds to +125, and if it drops below that I’ll probably fall back to the over 12.5 instead.
Seth Curry Over 2.5 assists (+132) | Over 3.5 assists (+320)
The Sixers feel like they’re still trying to find their identity now that they have all their pieces back together, obviously excluding Ben Simmons. Embiid is back after missing a few weeks, and his presence seems to have thrown Tyrese Maxey’s breakout off a bit as Maxey’s numbers dip.
But as Maxey has dipped, Seth Curry has started to rise. Curry’s assists in particular have been notable over the past four games, when he’s recorded six, five, two, and eight dimes. That may not seem like much, but it’s 5.3 APG and more than double his season average of 2.4 to that point.
The underlying numbers support the rise too. If you look at Curry’s potential assists at NBA Advanced Stats, he’s averaging 7.5 potential assists these last four games, way up from 5.4 the rest of the season. We should remember that around half of potential assists typically convert, so Curry is probably getting a little lucky with his high totals lately, but we’re not asking him to have eight or six or even five assists. We just need three or four, depending on which line you choose.
I’ll play both of them in an escalator approach. We’re projecting Curry at 3.0 assists, which makes the over-2.5 a strong play at plus juice, especially considering his production lately. But it’s only one more assist to hit that +310 line, so I’m making the aggressive play. I’ll play a bit of both, hoping that we hit at least the first and it covers my bet on the second. You can choose how to play it on your end.
I’ll play the over-2.5 at any plus number. He’s gone over that in eight of the past 13 contests.
Danny Green, Over 1.5 3-Pointers (-144)
Look, it’s not going to be a comfortable ride tonight. If you’ve watched Danny Green play any ball at all over the past decade, you know he is an incredibly streaky shooter. Sometimes the shots fall, and sometimes they just don’t.
This line is really surprising, though. Green is a streaky shooter, but he usually hits at least a couple. He’s averaging 2.1 makes for the season on 5.1 attempts, hitting 41.8% of his 3s for the year.
That’s not a huge attempt number, so it would normally make me a bit queasy, but check out the consistency! Green has made multiple 3s in 15 of his 18 games this season, hitting this over 83% of the time. He also hasn’t played huge minutes this season but has been ticking up over the last week. Green is averaging over 30 MPG over the past three games, his highest playing-time stretch of the season. That might buy us an extra attempt.
This is another spot you might consider an alternate line if you really want to look death in the face and laugh. You can play over 2.5 made 3s at +250, and he’s done that in six of 18 games so there’s a small edge in our favor since that would imply +200. I don’t trust Green enough though, so I’ll stick with the standard line on this one.
I’ll play Green to hit at least a pair of 3s to -160. Note that you can find this line slightly lower at other books if you shop around, but I stuck with the FanDuel line here for Same Game Parlay purposes.
Bonus Prop Bets
- Jeff Green, Over 11.5 PTS + AST (-115 DraftKings): Green is scoring 14.0 points per game over the last eight and has gone over this line in seven of the eight. Also a nice passer and the assists only add 1 to the line so it adds an out. Besides, Green owes us money after yesterday’s disaster.
- Jaren Jackson Jr., Over 1.5 Blocks (+100 DraftKings): Jackson continues to break out and has now blocked multiple shots in 18 of 25 games this season (72%), including seven of the last nine. Don’t go crazy though — the Lakers allow the fewest blocks in the league.