The Warriors didn’t really show up for a potential closeout Game 4, so we’re headed back to San Francisco for Game 5 as Dallas fights to extend its season once again.
Golden State has been untouchable at home and the Warriors are a huge favorite, so how do we take that into account for our props plays?
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing using the Action Labs Player Prop tool. Let’s dig into where to find value for Game 5 of the Western Conference finals.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Luka Doncic, Under 8.5 Assists (-124)
|Mavericks vs. Warriors||Warriors -7|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | TNT|
What a game Luka Doncic had to help keep the Dallas Mavericks season alive in Game 4! Doncic racked up 30 points, 14 rebounds and nine assists. He finished a single dime away from a 30-point triple double in an elimination game and continues to post huge numbers with his back against the wall and everything on the line.
Life won’t come as easy on the road, though. Golden State is a veteran, battle-tested team and the Warriors will surely come out more locked-in defensively and ready to give a full 48 minutes of effort — something the team clearly didn’t do in Game 4.
The Warriors played Game 4 like they’d take the win if it presented itself, but Dallas hit its shots early and it felt like Golden State let go of the rope a little bit.
This is a home closeout spot for the Warriors. Golden State has gone up 3-0 in a series 11 times since 2015. The Warriors have only gone 6-5 in potential closeout Game 4s, but each one of those Game 4 losses was followed by a Game 5 victory.
So why does that matter? It matters because Doncic has gone under 8.5 assists in all seven Mavs losses in this postseason, averaging just 5.1 APG in those losses. That’s a 100% hit rate on this prop and it’s even better if you parlay the assists under with a Warriors moneyline win at +126 combined.
It’s not that Doncic isn’t passing in losses — it’s that his teammates simply aren’t hitting shots. We know this about the Mavericks by now. When the shots fall for Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and the rest of the squad, the Mavs can roll up points and look unbeatable. When the shots don’t fall, Dallas can get buried.
Hey, maybe the shots will fall and Dallas will squeeze another win out of this series. But if they don’t, it probably won’t be because Doncic didn’t score but rather because his teammates didn’t convert and that’s why we’re playing this assists under.
Draymond Green, Under 6.5 Assists (-144)
Before this series, I said on the Buckets podcast that Draymond Green would be the most important player in the series. I expected Green to be a huge factor on both ends. His defense would need to be elite against this potent Mavs offense and I figured the Warriors would need him to be aggressive on offense, penetrating the defense with his dribbling and slicing them apart with his passing.
That’s really not what we’ve seen though. Green has been fine, good mostly, but it’s been a couple of the other Warriors starters who have really come through for the team. Kevon Looney has dominated the glass and filled up the box score as a huge factor and Andrew Wiggins has been outstanding at both ends — defending Doncic and giving him the business on the offensive end, too. The Warriors have found a familiar strength in numbers.
And you know, I think Green is just fine with that. Green’s numbers have been a bit muted this series, but nobody has ever mistaken Green as a guy who cares about his numbers. If the Warriors are winning, Green is happy. And they’re winning right now without him dominating the boards or racking up assists.
Green has gone under 6.5 assists in all four games of the series and he was under 6.5 in the one regular season game he played against Dallas, too. That’s a perfect 5-for-5 hit rate to this under. Green is averaging 4.8 APG for the series, and that’s about in line with expectation to his 10.3 Potential Assists per game since typically about half of those convert. That makes this line too high and it means we have to fade Green here.
I’ll play the assists under — I just don’t think the numbers will be there. But Green will be happy if he gets the only number that matters … a No. 4 in the win column for the series.