Our Props Tool continues to make us a ton of money this year. And most days, the Props Tool does almost all of the work for us. But some days, we need to get a little creative to maximize the information the tool equips us with to get an even bigger edge on the competition.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. But today, two of our three recommendations are derivative from the Props Tool, using the information and projections there to play a more favorable alternate line.
Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
OG Anunoby, over 19.5 points (+164)
|Bulls vs. Raptors||Raptors -3.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | League Pass|
Our Props Tool continues to recommend OG Anunoby’s points over. It’s the top play on the board tonight in the Bulls-Raptors game, with the tool rating the over 17.5 points as a 10 out of 10 and giving it a 16% edge in our favor. You can play that one at even odds (+100) at DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM. We project Anunoby at 20.5 points.
I get the play. Anunoby has averaged 18.1 PPG over the last 18 games and has gone over 17.5 points in exactly half of them, which basically puts this line right on the money. His volume over that span is at 14.7 field goal attempts a game. Extend the numbers to the full season and the math stays about the same. Now OG goes over 17.5 points in 17 of 34 appearances, again exactly half of them and implying the +100 is right on the money.
But this is a spot where an alternate line can give us a much better value play. While it’s true that Anunoby has scored over 17.5 points in 17 games, he’s also scored at least 20 in 16 of those 17 — all but one of them. Since many books let us play alternate lines for players to score 20-plus points, that means we can get much better odds for just one extra OG bucket.
Now look at how the math shapes up. For just one more bucket — 20 points instead of 18 — we get to play Anunoby at +164 at FanDuel. For some reason, we’re getting an implied 50% of 18 or more points but under 38% implied at 20 or more points. Is that one extra bucket really that much less likely? I don’t buy it.
Anunoby has scored at least 20 points in 47% of his games this year. And remember, we’re projecting him at 20.5 points anyway. I’ll play our Prop Tool but play the far more advantageous line, going for those 20-plus points. I’ll play that one to +130 or switch back to the traditional over if needed from there.
Deandre Ayton to record a double-double (+160)
|Suns vs. Hawks||Suns -4|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
Welcome back, big fella.
The Phoenix Suns are rolling, winning 11 in a row and now 41 of their first 50 games on the season. Devin Booker has been molten lava of late, and Chris Paul’s scoring is up too. And now the Suns welcome back the former No. 1 pick into the lineup too, his second game back after seven games away.
Ayton has had another quietly solid season. He’s averaging 16.6 points and 10.4 rebounds per game and continues to improve defensively as well. And since Ayton played 28 minutes in his return Tuesday, we can trust him to play a pretty typical minutes load too. We project him at 30 minutes tonight.
The Props Tool loves Ayton’s rebounding over tonight, and that’s a pretty easy sell. Ayton had one game without a rebound, playing under eight minutes and leaving hurt. In his other 28 games, he’s had double-digit boards in 18 of them and gone over 8.5 rebounds 20 times, hitting the over-8.5 71% of the time. If you just want the safer play, you can play that rated-10 prop at -115.
I’ll play more aggressively though. To go over 8.5 boards, we need at least nine, and nine puts us one rebound away from the harder part of a double-double. After all, Ayton has double-digit points in 25 of his 29 games this season, missing by one bucket three times and by more than a bucket in only that brief rebound-less game.
Rather than settling for the over 8.5 rebounds, I’ll play Ayton to record a double-double at +160. He’s done that 16 times in his 28 normal minutes games. That’s a 57% hit rate versus an implied 38%, and that’s nearly a 50% edge in our favor. You might also consider some alternate rebounding overs, since Ayton has 12-plus boards in 13 games.
If you want to build a Same Game Parlay, there are a couple Hawks props you should consider too, but only if Trae Young plays. If he’s out there, our Props Tool likes Kevin Huerter to go under 12.5 points (-110). He’s gone under that in 63% of his games, including eight of the last 11 before his outburst without Trae last game. I also like Clint Capela to go under 1.5 assists at -135. He’s done that in 62% of his games and topped out at two in 81% of them.
Build a SGP if you like, or stick with just Ayton. But either way, we’ll be watching this Suns-Hawks game.
Richaun Holmes, over 9.5 points (-115)
|Kings vs. Warriors||Kings +13.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | League Pass|
Richaun Holmes has found himself a nice home in Sacramento. After bouncing around the league through Philadelphia and Phoenix, Holmes has blossomed with the Kings. He’s averaged 13.1 points per game in 140 games with the Kings, starting for most of them.
Holmes has seen his scoring dip a bit this season to just 12.0 PPG, his lowest mark in three Sacramento seasons. He’s also playing only 25.8 minutes per game, so that mostly correlates.
Those numbers make it look like Holmes just doesn’t have as big of a role this season, but they’re misleading. Seven times this season, Richaun has played under 20 minutes in a game. That can always happen, of course, but most of those have come in brief stints to injury, either leaving early or coming back from time away.
If you throw out those seven outlier games, we get a better representation of Holmes for the season at 13.7 PPG, almost right in line with his breakout season a year ago. In those 28 games with at least 20 minutes, he’s scored double digits in 20 of them, hitting this over 71% of the time. That includes four of the last seven games, where he’s been within one bucket of this over in every game.
We’re getting a discount on this line, and it helps that the Kings are facing a softer than expected Warriors defense with Draymond Green out. We project Holmes at 26 minutes and 13.2 points. I’ll play this over to -140.