Suns vs. Mavericks Odds & Picks: Dallas Adjustments Are Critical

Will the Mavericks find enough adjustments in Game 2 to keep tonight's matchup low-scoring and competitive?

Game 2 of any playoff series is about adjustments. Tonight’s matchups are the opposite of Tuesday’s games, with both road teams facing an 0-1 deficit.

The Suns were bolstered by six players scoring in double-figures and a perfect 18 of 18 performance from the free throw line to earn a 121-114 victory in Game 1. Despite a dominant offensive performance, Phoenix only covered the spread by a miniscule half-point. Dallas will look for supplemental scoring support for Luka Doncic, who posted 45 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists for another fantastic all-around stat line

Will the Suns coast to another comfortable win, or will the Mavericks’ adjustments keep Game 2 competitive?  Here are my best bets for tonight’s Game 2 matchup between Dallas and Phoenix. 

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Suns and Mavericks Betting Odds

Suns Mavericks
Spread -6.5 +6.5
Moneyline -257 +205
Over/Under 216.5

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Suns vs. Mavericks Best Bets

Mavericks +6.5 (-110, DraftKings)

While Dallas was certainly fortunate to have 19 points (5/6 3P) from reserve Maxi Kleber, they also received minimal production from Reggie Bullock (seven points) and reserve Spencer Dinwiddie (eight points). Even starting guard Jalen Brunson (13 points) struggled to find efficiency (6 of 16) from the field. I expect a more competitive Game 2, with the Mavericks 3P defense regression to their seasonal average. Dallas ranked first in 3P percentage allowed at a microscopic 33.6%.

On offense, the Mavericks will need another big performance from Doncic. Similar to Ja Morant against Golden State, the Phoenix game plan centers around limiting the perimeter options. This should lead Doncic to another massive performance, and possible triple-double. I trust Doncic to dominate once again, which combined with an improved defensive night, should keep this game close to the last minute.

Dallas also played at the slowest pace of any NBA team this year, preferring to maximize variance with a roster that lost Tim Hardway Jr. and Kristaps Porzingis during the season. This is a cohesive unit, that should bring their best defensive effort of the season tonight.

I’m grabbing the 6.5 points with the road underdog in a critical Game 2.

Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)

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Suns vs. Mavericks Game Total Under 216.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)

The hot 3P shooting from both teams should regress in a slower paced Game 2.

The Mavericks found a way to grab a Game 2 victory in Round 1 against Utah after losing Game 1, and without Luka Doncic on the court. Dallas adjusted off Game 1 and shot a blistering 46.8% (22 of 47) from deep to grab a 110-104 victory over Utah.

I expect a similar response tonight with Doncic controlling the pace and the Mavericks improving on the boards. Dallas was outrebounded 51-36 in Game 1, including 13 offensive rebounds. If Dallas limits second-chance oppportunities, especially 3Ps, they will keep this game close and competitive.

The bigger the game, the slower the pace. Last night’s Grizzlies-Warriors game was almost 30 points below the Game 1 total. I expect a similar discrepancy with Phoenix and Dallas tonight.

Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)

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