Suns vs. Mavericks Odds
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Mavericks didn’t just beat the Suns, they stepped on their throats and embarrassed them in a 33-point beatdown on their home court in Game 7. After a dominant regular season, Chris Paul and the Suns were poised to make a championship run, but not on Luka Doncic’s watch.
The Suns got their revenge against the Mavericks in this season’s home opener with a 107-105 victory, but it took a 22-point comeback and a heroic shot from Damion Lee to get the job done. With the Mavericks losing in such heartbreaking fashion, is it their turn for a revenge spot?
The Suns are winners of seven of their previous eight games. The Mavericks have lost five of their last seven and have underperformed against market expectations this season. Yet, the Mavericks are 3.5-point favorites.
Hmm … something doesn’t smell right here, and this line sticks out like a sore thumb. Let’s break down this game below and see if we can spot why.
Will the Suns Hit the Fatigue Wall?
The Suns continue to be one of NBA’s elites even with Paul missing extensive time and Jae Crowder not joining the team this season. They have a 16-7 record and are second and fifth in Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating, respectively, per NBA Advanced Stats. They are the only team in the league that is top-five in both categories.
Why are they underdogs? One reason is because they are playing the second game of a back-to-back. It is also their third game in four nights and fourth game in six nights. They’re playing again on Wednesday, so the mileage is building up.
However, with the early blowout of the Spurs on Sunday, all of the Suns’ starters played fewer than 30 minutes. That is crucial, especially for Mikal Bridges who has been dealing with knee soreness. The fatigue factor may not be as impactful as anticipated.
Nonetheless, the line implies that there could be some key players getting a rest day. The Suns are known to be secretive with their injury reports. Do not be surprised if either Bridges, Devin Booker, or Deandre Ayton get a rest day.
We know Chris Paul and Torrey Craig are traveling with the team on this road trip and could end up suiting up. The point is that it is unknown at this time, and we likely will not get news until tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Another reason the line could is that the Suns’ have struggled on the road. They are 4-5 on the road this season, but they’ve won their last two road games convincingly and have propelled themselves to have the top Offensive Rating in the league on the road.
The Suns are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and they are 9-3 ATS against teams with a Defensive Rating better than the season average.
Mavericks Underperforming Market Expectations
It has been a weird and disappointing start for this Mavericks team, who were expected to make a huge leap forward after making it to the Western Conference Finals last season. They’re sitting with a mediocre 11-11 record, but their league-worst 6-15-1 ATS record indicates they are not performing up to market expectations.
Losing Jalen Brunson was a big hit, and their depth has suffered as a result. Spencer Dinwiddie has filled in decently in the starting role, but now they lack a playmaker off the bench. They’ve recently signed Kemba Walker, who should fit their needs really well.
Christian Wood is having a nice season as their sixth man, but it has been no secret that he is unhappy about his role. He is their third-most impactful player from a Value Over Replacement Player perspective, per Basketball Reference. Wood is listed as questionable with an illness for Monday’s game.
The Mavericks’ defense has taken a step back this season. They are 17th in Defensive Rating in their previous five games, per NBA Advanced Stats. They are 29th in Rebound Rate versus the Suns sixth in Rebound Rate. With Deandre Ayton manning the middle for the Suns, I think they will dominate the boards and give them a big edge in this matchup.
Here are some staggering stats and splits from this season. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS on the first game of a back-to-back (10-21 ATS since the 2020-21 season), per the SDQL at Killer Sports. This is active on the Mavs as they face they Nuggets on Tuesday night and then the Bucks on Friday.
With such a tough schedule coming up, they may be preserving some of that energy. The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS after a win this season, per the SDQL at Killer Sports. They completely melt down and let their guard loose after a win.
I understand there are so many factors at play here. The Suns’ injury report is extremely concerning as they could be inclined to sit some key players on the second night of a back-to-back. The Mavericks could be without Wood, which hurts their bench depth.
Even being aggressive with my fatigue factor situational adjustments, I still have the Suns as one-point favorites. The splits I shared above all favor the Suns here, and until we are informed, I am assuming most of the Suns’ starters will suit up. Therefore, I am jumping on this favorable price of +3.5.
Take note, there is a lot of risk and potential room to move, so keep your eyes peeled for news during the day.
Pick: Suns +3.5