Suns vs. Kings Odds
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
On Monday evening, the Phoenix Suns travel to Sacramento to take on one of the league’s biggest surprises this season. This young, run-and-gun Kings‘ offense boasts the second-most points scored per 100 possessions in the league.
Phoenix’s star guard Chris Paul has already been declared out for the 10th consecutive game, so there is no ambiguity going into tomorrow evening. Even without their starting point guard, the Suns have won four straight and will look to extend that streak.
As of Monday morning, the Kings are short favorites at home. It feels odd to be making that statement in a game involving these two teams. The betting market has become increasingly aware of this season’s surprise team and are pricing them as such. Has there been an overreaction, or is this line justified? Let’s dive into this matchup and find out.
Suns Maintaining Without Key Pieces
The Suns continue to be one of NBA’s elites even with Paul missing extensive time and Jae Crowder not reporting to camp this season. They have a 13-6 record and are third and fifth in Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating, respectively, per NBA Advanced Stats. They are the only team in the league that is top-five in both categories.
Take a look at their home/away splits and you’ll see a stark differences in their performance on the road. They have one of the worst road records in the NBA at 2-5, having lost their last three away from home. Their Offensive and Defensive Rating falls to eighth and 21st, respectively.
Deandre Ayton has been playing especially well lately. The big man notched a double-double in five consecutive games and has even upped his scoring to 28 and 29 points in his previous two games. He is an excellent rebounder that propels the Suns to have the fifth-best Offensive Rebounding Rate, but he will have his hands full against one of the best rebounding teams in the Kings. I see a battle down low between Ayton and Domantas Sabonis.
The Suns will be without Cameron Johnson for 1-2 months as he recovers from knee surgery. They’ve missed their sweet-shooting wing man, as he was hitting 2.8 3-pointers per game on 43.1% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately, with Jae Crowder gone, Johnson out and Paul potentially sitting out for another game, their rotation is mighty thin.
Their games have gone under in four consecutive games — they are allowing an average for 103.5 points per game in the previous four games.
Kings Could Face Matchup Disadvantage From Deep
The Kings are a league-best 12-6 against the spread this season. De’Aaron Fox is having a career season and getting plenty of support from their role players. Six of their players are averaging double-digit scoring.
Kevin Huerter’s play has stood out most to me — he is shooting 47.3% from behind the arc on 7.3 3-point attempts per game. Rookie Keegan Murray started off the season strong, but has cooled off as of late, going 2-for-21 from the field in the previous three games.
The Kings rely heavily on shooting 3-pointers — they rank sixth in 3-Point Rate (43.4% of their total field goal attempts). The Suns, on the other hand, allow the sixth-lowest 3-Point Rate to opponents and look to prevent perimeter shots.
One edge I see is that the Kings have a knack for drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line. They rank seventh in Free Throw Rate (28.8%) whereas the Suns are 27th in Opponent’s Free Throw Rate. The Suns will need to stay disciplined to avoid sending the Kings to the line.
They are returning home from a tough three-game road trip where they lost the last two to the Hawks and Celtics. They only scored 104 and 106 points in those two games. The Suns are another step up in competition with one of the league’s elite defenses.
Given Paul’s injury and the Suns’ awful road splits, I think the Kings as small favorites is justified. However, I can see the experience of the Suns trumping the Kings. In their win against the Memphis Grizzlies the other night, there were plenty of late-game blunders from the young Kings team.
Instead, I have my eyes set on the total here. The Suns are 4-0 to the under in their previous four games and the Kings have gone under in three straight games. I think we continue to see some regression for the Kings offense.
In addition, I think the Suns will swarm the Kings with their defense. The Suns are good at defending the 3-pointer and preventing fast break points, two areas in which the Kings are successful.
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