Sunday features Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. After stealing two games on the road, the Heat return home where they are a perfect 5-0 during the postseason. Despite the perfect record, they are still 3.5-point home underdogs. This article features two player props for Al Horford and Gabe Vincent, two rotational players whose roles may be changing. Let’s finish the weekend with a few winners!
NBA Player Props & Picks
Al Horford, Under 13.5 Points and Rebounds (-125)
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
It has been a difficult start to the series for the Celtics as a team, and specifically Al Horford, who hasn’t played well for a little while. Horford seems to be aging before our eyes as he is averaging just 3.4 points per game over his last five playoff games. Over that time, Horford is shooting 22.6% from the field and 13.6% on 3s. Gross.
In this series, Horford is averaging 4.5 points and five rebounds despite playing 30.5 minutes per game. This is not a great matchup as the Heat were second in the league in points allowed in the paint during the regular season, and Miami has dominated the glass through in Boston. The Celtics may change their starting lineup, which may benefit Horford, but this is a great prop to take. There is heavy juice on his under of 7.5 points and 6.5 rebounds.
Horford isn’t playing nearly as much in this series as he did throughout the first two playoff series against the Hawks and 76ers. With the Heat running out several small-ball lineups, Horford is being played off the court due to his lack of quickness at age 36. Horford has gone under this 13.5 points and rebounds prop in eight of his last 12 playoff games and in four straight games against the Heat. I would take his under down to 12.5 points and rebounds in this spot.
Gabe Vincent, Over 13.5 Points and Assists (-111)
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
Gabe Vincent’s over 13.5 total points and assists is also worth targeting in Game 3. Over the first two games, Vincent is averaging 12 points per game. He surpassed this prop in points alone in Game 1 while scoring 15 points while making three 3-pointers. He has started in all 13 playoff games and is averaging 11.6 points and 4.2 assists per game.
Capturing assists against the Celtics elite defense has been difficult for Vincent thus far. He has two total dimes in back-to-back games and is only averaging 2.5 potential assists per game. However, his 2.5 assist prop is favored heavily on the over at -175 as Vincent averaged five assists against the Bucks and 4.7 per game against the Knicks.
Expect regression to the mean for Vincent on assists, and he has also shown the ability to hit big shots.
Vincent’s clutch 20-foot step back jumpshot with 35 seconds left in Game 2 put the Heat up by four points as they went on to close out the game. Our NBA Prop Model has Vincent projected for 16 points and assists tonight, which is well above this prop line. It helps that he is playing huge minutes with the absence of Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Vincent played 36 and 40 minutes in the first two games, which is providing him plenty of opportunity to reach this over on his total points and assists.