Sunday's NBA Player Props: Value on Ayton's Regression

Tyler Schmidt breaks down his two favorite player prop bets for Sunday's NBA slate on October 23.

On this seven-game slate, two props that are popping in our model feature Zion Williamson and Deandre Ayton. These are the best two prop lines to target, so let’s put them into a parlay and print tonight.

We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

Zion Williamson, Under 3.5 Assists (-120)

Pelicans vs. Jazz Pelicans -9
Time | TV 7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Book DraftKings

Not many expected a matchup of 2-0 teams between the New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz. The Pelicans are quietly loaded offensively as they have FOUR players averaging over 20 points per game through the first two games. For a tanking Jazz team, their upsets have been shocking, but they are still nine-point underdogs.

Getting assists has never been Zion Williamson‘s strong suit. He did average 3.7 assists per game two seasons ago, as he was out all of last year with an injury. Our model has Williamson projected for only 2.3 assists in this matchup as he has had three assists in the Pelicans’ first two games. We’ll take the under tonight.

With no restriction on his playing time, Williamson has had a 30% Usage Rate through the first two games, which is impressive on this Pelicans team. Even with the extremely high Usage Rate, Williamson has averaged only 3.5 potential assists, which ranks tied for the fourth-highest on this loaded Pelicans team.

Even though Williamson is averaging 20.5 points per game, which ranks fourth on the Pelicans, he is leading the team with 20.5 field goal attempts per game. He is simply looking to score, not pass, whenever he gets the ball. This Jazz frontcourt is very depleted, which feeds right into what Williamson wants to do.

Deandre Ayton, Over 10.5 Rebounds (+102)

Clippers vs. Suns Suns -1
Time | TV 10 p.m. ET | NBA TV
Best Book FanDuel

After a very disappointing loss to the Trail Blazers in overtime last night, the Suns get a chance for revenge on the road against the Clippers tonight. They are surprisingly one-point road favorites with this total sitting at only 218.5 points. This should be the best NBA game of the slate to watch on NBA TV.

Deandre Ayton has had a little bit of a disappointing start to the season from a rebounding perspective. He is averaging 22 points per game, which ranks second on the team while shooting 60.6% from the field. However, Ayton is only averaging eight rebounds a game so far, which is bound to climb.

After averaging a double-double for four-straight seasons, Ayton will regress back to the mean and get his rounding numbers up. Last season, the Clippers ranked as the fourth-lowest rebounding percentage team in the league. With Ayton playing 34.5 minutes per game, the opportunities will be there tonight.

Our prop model has Ayton projected for an incredible 14.2 rebounds in this matchup, which provides incredible value on the over. The best part about this prop bet is we are getting juice on the over on FanDuel at +102 compared to -115 on DraftKings and other sportsbooks. We’ll take the value!