Sunday's NBA Player Props: Mitchell Among 3 Overs Worth Backing

Alex Hinton breaks down his three favorite NBA prop bets for Sunday, including a play on Donovan Mitchell of the Cleveland Cavaliers.

It may be Sunday, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t make money on the NBA in addition to football. There is an eight-game NBA slate on Sunday, with Knicks-Suns being the only early tip. However, the other games tip off at 6 p.m. ET or later, giving you time to put your NFL winnings on the NBA. Here are the player props I have targeted.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

De’Aaron Fox Over 24.5 Points (-122)

Detroit Pistons vs. Sacramento Kings Kings -9.5
Time | TV 6:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line FanDuel

A couple of weeks back, I targeted Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s points line against the Pistons. He finished with 33 points and joined the already long list of point guards to exploit the Pistons this season. Today, I am going back to the well and targeting another Kentucky guard, De’Aaron Fox.

Fox is averaging 24.8 points on the year. He has scored 25 points in eight of his 13 games this season, including a 28-point performance against the Spurs in his last time out. Both the volume and favorable matchup are there to get him to 25 points again on Sunday.

This year, he is averaging 17.2 field goal attempts per game while playing with remarkable efficiency as he is shooting 55.4% from the field. That includes 37.8% on about five 3-point attempts per game, but like SGA, Fox likes to get into the lane and operate in the midrange area.

That should play well against Detroit as the Pistons rank 26th in 2-point percentage defense and 27th in points in the paint allowed. The Pistons are also 29th in points allowed per game and dead last in defending point guards. Fox should have ample opportunity to score 25 points and threaten 30 points, which is +200 on FanDuel as well.

Terry Rozier Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)

Charlotte Hornets vs. Washington Wizards Hornets +6
Time | TV 6:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line DraftKings

Charlotte received a boost when its young star point guard LaMelo Ball returned to the floor. Unfortunately, Ball reinjured his ankle, and he will be out once again on Sunday. However, when Ball is unavailable, more is required of his backcourt mate, Terry Rozier.

When Ball is out of the lineup, Rozier takes on more playmaking responsibilities. He is also averaging 23.8 field goal attempts when Ball is out, compared to 16.3 with him on the floor this season. He has hit this line in five of seven games this season without Ball and is averaging 31.9 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) in those games.

One of the misses this year was against the Wizards, but he still had 19 points, three rebounds, and five assists. However, since Rozier has joined the Hornets, he has torched the Wizards on a regular basis. Since the start of the 2019-20 season, he is averaging 22.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. That adds up 32.7 PRA, which would safely clear this line.

As of this writing, DraftKings is offering Rozier’s PRA line at 29.5, compared to 30.5 on FanDuel at roughly the same odds.

Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-106)

Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Cavaliers -10.5
Time | TV 7:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line FanDuel

Donovan Mitchell and his Cavaliers just faced Rozier and his Hornets on Friday night in a thrilling 132-122 double-overtime victory for the Cavaliers. Mitchell shot just 2-for-9 from behind the arc, but the volume is always there with him. He attempts 9.5 3-pointers per game and is making 41.1% of them. This is one of the reasons why he is fourth in the league in scoring at 31.2 points per game.

However, today is about his matchup. The Miami Heat struggled defending the 3-point line against shooting guards last year, and that has continued into this season as the Heat are allowing the second-most 3s to shooting guards. Miami is also 28th in 3-pointers allowed overall and 21st in 3-point percentage defense.

The obvious beneficiary is Mitchell, who is due for a breakout after shooting 8-for-28 from beyond the arc over the last three games. When Mitchell is feeling it, he can knock down four 3s in a quarter. I’m banking on his volume and the favorable matchup against the Heat to end his cold spell.