After hitting our two props last night, we’ll press our luck with three player props for this NBA slate. There is one early game prop, but if you miss that, don’t worry, we have two props later if you need to chase your NFL losses.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Reggie Jackson, Over 3.5 Assists (-135)
|Clippers vs. Pelicans||Clippers -3|
|Time | TV||3 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The storyline for both the Clippers and Pelicans is once again the injury report. Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington are out for the Clippers while Brandon Ingram is out for the Pelicans. Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are also listed as game-time decisions. However, none of these injuries affect our prop too much.
Clippers point guard Reggie Jackson has had a massive increase in his playing time over the last two games. He played a season-high 37 minutes last game and delivered with 18 points while shooting 8-for-13 from the field and dishing out four assists. If Jackson plays that well, it’ll be tough to put him on the bench.
Jackson has gone over this 3.5 assist prop line in four of his five games despite averaging only 28.2 minutes per game. He ranks second behind Paul George in potential assists with 7.6 per game. This injured Pelicans team ranks 21st in Defensive Rating (113.8) entering today’s games. It’s a great spot for Jackson.
Our model has Jackson projected for 5.2 assists in this matchup, and the Pelicans have allowed 26.4 assists per game, which ranks 22nd in the league so far this season. This line feels too low with Jackson’s Usage Rate and minutes rising.
Mitchell Robinson, Over 6.5 Points (-110)
|Cavaliers vs. Knicks||Cavaliers -4|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
After winning three straight home games, the Knicks suffered a close loss on the road against the Bucks in their last game. Their short two-game road trip ends tonight against the Cavaliers, who have won four straight games entering this game. They are four-point favorites as this total is just over 220 points.
The story with Mitchell Robinson is always if he can stay out of foul trouble. In his two games where he was one foul away from fouling out, Robinson only played 13 and 20 minutes and scored five or fewer points. In his three games where he has avoided foul trouble, Robinson has averaged 10.3 points per game.
Our model has Robinson projected for 9.7 points, which is well over this prop line. The Cavaliers do rank tied for third in post ups this season, but they have also allowed 54 points in the paint in their last three games. If Robinson can stay out of foul trouble, he should score enough to get this over.
Robinson is shooting 77.3% this season and only missed two field goal attempts in four games before his 2-for-5 performance last game. This game will likely be competitive, giving Robinson plenty of opportunities tonight.
Nikola Jokic, Under 25.5 Points (-113)
|Lakers vs. Nuggets||Nuggets -3.5|
|Time | TV||9:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Lakers are one of two winless teams this season with their 0-5 record, as Anthony Davis remains questionable to play once again. His status for this game is massive, especially going against the back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic.
We’ll take the under Jokic points prop tonight as I would expect Davis to play after missing last game. Despite being 0-5, the one saving grace for the Lakers has been their stout defense. They rank second in Defensive Rating (103.8), coming into tonight’s game. Getting Davis back would certainly help.
Jokic still leads the Nuggets in points, rebounds, assists, and steals this season while averaging nearly a triple-double. However, Jokic is only averaging 20.7 points and attempting 11.8 field goal attempts per game. Playing alongside a healthy Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., Jokic has 22.8% Usage Rate.
Our model has Jokic projected for only 22.7 points as the Lakers have allowed the seventh-fewest points in the paint this season. This could get dicey if Davis is ruled out, but Jokic doesn’t need to put up massive scoring numbers playing with two high-volume shooters. Take the Jokic points under with confidence.