After hitting both player props with ease last night, we will look to continue the momentum going into this nine-game NBA main slate. The three player props we will target are featuring Deni Avdija, Kevin Huerter and Deandre Ayton. Find NBA player prop picks and betting analysis below.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Deni Avdija, Over 4.5 Assists (-115)
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Among the large spreads on tonight’s slate, the Knicks are favored by 12 points at home against the Wizards, who are playing without Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis. This game has a 223-point total, which is the lowest on the slate. Expect an ugly game at Madison Square Garden tonight.
Despite an implied total of 105.5 points for Washington, Wizards small forward Deni Avdija will get as many minutes as he can handle as long as he stays out of foul trouble. Over the last seven games, Avdija is stuffing the stat sheet with 14.4 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. We’ll focus on his assists for this prop.
Our model has Avdija projected for 5.8 assists tonight, which shouldn’t be that surprising since he is averaging 8.7 potential assists per game in his last seven games. That is the second-most potential assists on the team behind Beal, who is out tonight. Avdija has gone over this prop line in five of his last seven games.
The Knicks play at the fifth-slowest Pace in the league but do rank outside the top 10 in points and assists allowed per game. This game environment may decrease the scoring opportunities, but based on how well Avdija is playing recently and with so many Wizards players being out, this over looks too juicy.
Kevin Huerter, Over 2.5 Made 3-Pointers (-130)
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Kings have won 15 of their last 20 games as they currently sit in the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. They are a massive 17-point favorite at home against the Spurs, who are one of the worst teams in the league. The Kings are implied to score a slate-high 130.25 points, which is absurd even for this team.
This is a perfect storm matchup as the Kings lead the league in scoring with 121.2 points per game, while the Spurs rank last in points allowed with 122.7 points per game. The Spurs are last in Defensive Rating as they are allowing their opponents to shoot 50.8% from the field and 39.3% from behind the arc.
In his first year with the Kings, Kevin Huerter has been fantastic by averaging a career-high 15.4 points per game while shooting 41.1% from downtown. He is making a team-high 2.8 3-pointers per game and has made three or more 3-pointers in four of his last five games. He was surging during March as Huerter averaged 3.7 made 3-pointers per game, which is well above this prop line.
Our model has Huerter projected for 3.6 3-pointers made tonight, which is one more than his 2.5 made 3s prop line. In such a great matchup that will provide plenty of opportunities, Huerter has a great chance to make three or more 3-pointers.
Deandre Ayton, Under 14.5 Points (-115)
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Winners of four consecutive games, the Suns have separated themselves a little bit in the Western Conference standings as they have a great chance to host a playoff series. Kevin Durant has played in each of the Suns’ last three games, which is good news for everyone on the team besides Deandre Ayton.
When Durant and Ayton play together, Ayton gets placed on the back burner. In five games alongside each other, Ayton is averaging only 10 points on eight field goal attempts per game. His Usage Rate dips from 24% to 14.5% as Durant and Devin Booker are taking a majority of the field goal attempts.
The Thunder may play at the second-fastest Pace in the league, but they also rank top 10 in Defensive Rating and middle of the pack in points allowed in the paint despite their smaller frontcourt. Ayton has only scored more than 10 points once playing with Durant, and that was against the pitiful Hornets.
Our model has Ayton projected for 11.3 points tonight, which still seems a little high but is well below his 14.5 points prop line. I would feel comfortable taking this under at 11.5 points given how much Durant and Booker dominate the ball when playing together. It is a fine matchup, but keep Ayton on the back burner.