After going 2 for 2 in Saturday’s NBA player props, we are going to try to build on that success with three props on Sunday’s eight-game slate. With no games scheduled Monday due to the NCAA Championship, make sure you get your exposure here. There are contests running all throughout the day.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tobias Harris — Over 5.5 Rebounds (-110)
|Cavaliers vs. 76ers||76ers -4.5|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Philadelphia 76ers have a great chance to continue to climb the Eastern Conference standings, but they need to do so quickly. That starts with a big game against the Toronto Raptors, who are directly behind them.
Tobias Harris seems to have taken the biggest hit when the 76ers added James Harden at the trade deadline. However, he has been coming into his own recently. Harris has shot 50% or better in seven consecutive games.
Where Harris seems to have kept his production the most is with rebounding the ball. Harris is averaging 6.9 rebounds per game. That said, this prop seems way too low. Harris has averaged six rebounds or more per game in six seasons in a row, regardless of the team that he has played for at the time.
Recently, Harris has had six or more rebounds in four out of his last seven games, with two of those contests finishing with five rebounds. The Cavaliers’ front court looks extremely different without Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the lineup, so there should be plenty of opportunities.
The downside of this matchup is the pace. Both teams rank 25th or lower in pace, but the total is reasonable at 224 points. This is a big game for the 76ers, so look for Harris to clean up the glass.
Our model has Harris projected for 7.1 rebounds. So, I would consider taking 6.5, but prefer to stay with the 5.5 rebounds prop line.
Pascal Siakam, Over 4.5 Assists (+110)
|Raptors vs. Heat||Raptors -3.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The Toronto Raptors have won five consecutive games as they try sneak into the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference to get a home series. They have a tough test against the best team in the conference.
The Raptors are favored in this game, as they’re finally back at near full strength. Thus, there are several props popping in our model. Standout OG Anunoby (over 14.5 points) and Fred VanVleet (over 5.5 assists) are two of them, but I decided to take Pascal Siakam going over 4.5 assists.
Two games ago, Siakam had a career-high 13 assists as he had a triple-double in Toronto’s victory over the Timberwolves. Siakam has recorded five or more assists in five of his last eight games. He’s averaging a career-high 5.2 assists per game showing his versatility as a top player in the league.
Player props for the Raptors are the best because the minutes are always incredible high, giving them so many opportunities to catch their prop line. Siakam has played 43.3 minutes per game in his last three games. On the season, Siakam is second to VanVleet with 37.8 minutes per game.
This matchup against the Heat features the lowest total on the slate at 212 points. That will limit the upside for multiple assists, but our projections still think he will get over this total by nearly one whole assist. Take the juice.
Davion Mitchell, Under 20.5 Points (-122)
|Kings vs. Warriors||Warriors -5.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Sacramento Kings have put together a mini run as they have won four out of their last five games. That’s big for them since they only have 29 wins on the season. They are home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors in this spot.
Davion Mitchell has led the Kings in scoring in four out of their last six games. He has actually scored 21 points or more in five out of his last six games as well. However, our model loves the under on this Mitchell prop, as he’s only projected to score 16.6 points against this difficult Golden State defense.
Steph Curry remains out for the Warriors, but their defense is still solid. They rank third in defensive rating, allowing only 105.7 points per game. The Kings are implied for only 108.25 points, which is low for this slate.
Mitchell has been the best facilitators on the Kings since De’Aaron Fox got hurt and Tyrese Haliburton left town. He has averaged a ridiculous 8.7 assists per game over his last six games. Mitchell recorded a double-double in their last victory over the Rockets with 11 points and 10 assists. However, he only shot 3 of 13 from the field.
This prop is available at 19.5 points — and even as low as 18.5 points — on DraftKings, but the value is almost the same as it is on FanDuel at 20.5 points. Always be sure to shop around for the best line and value, which is at FanDuel for Mitchell’s points prop. I would take it down to 18.5 as well.