Sunday's NBA Player Props: Back Bane & Thybulle

Tyler Schmidt breaks down his top NBA player prop bets for Sunday, March 5, including a play on Desmond Bane.

After sweeping the board with all three player props hitting last night, we will try and replicate that on this seven-game NBA main slate. We had all unders last night but are flipping the script with three player prop overs featuring Cameron Johnson, Desmond Bane and Matisse Thybulle. Let’s stay hot!

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NBA Player Props & Picks

Cameron Johnson, Over 2.5 Made 3-Pointers (-135)

Spread Nets -8
Time | TV 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line BetMGM

After losing four straight games, the Brooklyn Nets found a way to beat the Boston Celtics on the road by double digits in their last game. Losing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving has led to a transition period, but there is still a ton of talent on this Nets team, including sharpshooter Cameron Johnson.

Johnson’s 3-point prop feels a little low given how well he has shot the ball recently. He has made at least two 3-pointers in each of his eight games since joining the Nets and made seven 3s two games ago against the Knicks. The Nets are eight-point home favorites against the Hornets and implied for 117.5 points.

Since joining the Nets, Johnson is averaging 19.1 points per game, which is well above his production with the Suns. The Hornets rank 22nd in Defensive Rating this season and are allowing 118.1 points per game, which ranks as the fifth-highest in the league. They also allow 12.6 made 3-pointers per game.

Our NBA Model has Johnson projected for 3.8 made 3-pointers in this matchup. Taking this line at three or 3.5 is also intriguing. As always, shop around for the best odds, but BetMGM has Johnson’s over at a -135 value, which is the best on the board. Expect Johnson to continue shooting the ball at a great clip.

Pick: Cameron Johnson Over 2.5 Made 3s

Matisse Thybulle, Over 1.5 Steals (-105)

Spread Magic -2.5
Time | TV 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Line DraftKings

The story for the Trail Blazers has been the incredible play from Damian Lillard. He has been on an absolute tear recently as Anfernee Simons continues to pop in and out of the lineup due to an ankle injury. However, Matisse Thybulle has been the unsung hero for the Trail Blazers with his tenacious defense.

Thybulle is averaging 2.1 steals per game with the Trail Blazers while recording two or more steals in five of his seven games. His defense and perimeter shooting are what will keep Thybulle on the floor. Over that seven-game span, he is shooting a ridiculous 50% from the field and 51.6% from behind the arc.

The Magic have a lot of wing talent for Thybulle to guard, which will solidify his playing time. We have Thybulle projected to play 34 minutes tonight as his steal projection has risen to 2.2 in this spot. The Magic are also allowing 7.8 steals per game, which is tied for the fifth-highest in the league this season.

Another benefit of playing the Magic is their youth throughout the roster. That lack of experience has led the Magic to average 14.5 turnovers per game, which is tied for the sixth-highest in the league. Either way you put it, Thybulle has a great chance to record two or more steals playing heavy minutes tonight.

Desmond Bane, Over 2.5 Made 3-Pointers (-140)

Spread Clippers -7
Time | TV 10 p.m. ET | ESPN
Best Line FanDuel

It has been a rough few days for the Memphis Grizzlies. Ja Morant is in legal trouble, Dillon Brooks is serving his suspension for too many technical fouls, and Brandon Clarke suffered a torn Achilles. All three of them are out tonight, which will put them in a tough spot against the Clippers.

However, with so many players out for the Grizzlies, that opens the door for Desmond Bane, who is having the best year of his career. He is averaging a career high in points, rebounds and assists while shooting over 40% from behind the arc once again. He has averaged three made 3-pointers per game.

With all three of Morant, Brooks and Clarke off the floor this season, Bane has a 29.3% Usage Rate as his production has sky-rocketed. Our NBA Model has Bane projected for 3.7 made 3-pointers tonight, which is well over this prop line. Expect the lights out shooting to continue for Bane in this matchup.

Since the Clippers have added Russell Westbrook, they rank second in Pace and bottom-five in Defensive Rating. They are playing so much faster than ever before, which makes this suddenly a great game environment. The Grizzlies will rely on Bane to provide most of the scoring, which is great for his over prop.

Pick: Desmond Bane Over 2.5 Made 3s