After a two-for-three night last night, we try and build on our bankroll with another NBA player props three-pack. We have two household names to target tonight and one name you may have never heard before. Let’s dive in!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jaylen Brown, Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-110)
|Celtics vs. Magic||Celtics -11|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
After a huge victory against the Suns last game, the Celtics look to build on that win with a much easier home matchup against the Magic tonight. They are 11-point favorites as the Magic have the second-worst record this season.
Jaylen Brown has been consistent for the Celtics this season, especially recently. Brown has averaged 25.7 points per game and 3.1 made 3-pointers per game. Brown is shooting an absurd amount of shots lately, and he had a career-high 36 field goal attempts just two games ago against the Clippers.
Brown has increased his usage recently because Jayson Tatum has been out for the past three games due to COVID protocols. He is questionable to play tonight, but this seems like a likely scenario in which he would sit. In three games without Tatum this season, Brown is averaging 26.7 points per game while taking 26.7 field goal attempts per game. He also has a 38.7% Usage Rate without Tatum!
This matchup for Brown and the Celtics is very favorable. The Magic don’t present much defensive resistance as they rank 27th in Defensive Rating and have allowed 111.5 points per game. They also really struggle guarding the 3-point line, which is my focus on this Brown prop. They allow 13.5 made 3-pointers per game and allow opponents to shoot 36.8% on 3s, which is the third-worst in the league.
Our model has Brown projected to pour in 3.6 made 3-pointers tonight, which makes this prop one of the best values on the board. Brown has made at least three 3-pointers in 13 of his 22 games played this season. This matchup will give Brown plenty of opportunities to dial it in from long distance tonight.
Omer Yurtseven, Over 11.5 Rebounds (-140)
|Kings vs. Heat||Heat -4|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Miami Heat are absolutely cooking right now as they have won five-straight games and nine of their last 11 games. They are four-point road favorites against the Kings tonight in what should be a very up-tempo spot for the Heat.
One of the surprise players for the Heat lately has been Omer Yurtseven. He has been on an absolute tear lately as he is averaging 13 rebounds per game over the last seven games. He has yet to have a game during that stretch where he has had fewer than 12 rebounds. He is dominating the glass.
The Heat are still playing without Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Dedmon which has allowed Yurtseven to get more and more playing time. He has averaged 31.3 minutes per game in his last three games, and he has delivered a double-double in each game with averages of 12 points and 14 rebounds per game.
The Kings present a fantastic matchup for Yurtseven specifically. They rank 26th in Defensive Rating and seventh in Pace. They rank 25th in Rebounding Percentage and allow 46.4 rebounds per game. They also allow 11.4 offensive rebounds per game, which is the third-highest in the league.
Yurtseven has beaten this 11.5 rebounds prop in seven-straight games, and I see that streak continuing tonight in this fantastic matchup. I would even consider taking this prop at 12.5 rebounds as crazy as that sounds if we were provided with some great value. Yurtseven should dominate the glass tonight.
LeBron James, Over 30.5 Points (-125)
|Lakers vs. Timberwolves||Lakers -8|
|Time | TV||9:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Los Angeles Lakers have certainly been struggling lately, despite LeBron James playing at a masterful level. They have lost six of their last eight games with their only two wins coming against the Rockets and Trail Blazers. They are eight-point favorites against the depleted Timberwolves.
Taking a points prop over 30.5 seems insane, until you dive into the numbers. James has scored over 30 points in seven-straight games. During that stretch James is shooting 57.8% from the field and 42.1% from downtown. His 28.6 points per game are the most he has had for a season since 2009-’10 with the Cavaliers. His 20.4 field goal attempts per game is also the most that James has averaged since the 2007-’08 season. He is on a different level right now.
It certainly helps that Anthony Davis is out with an injury. In 10 games without Davis in the lineup this season, James is averaging 35.4 points per game and a 33.8% Usage Rate. This is a significant difference compared to his average of 24.0 points per game and a 28.7% Usage Rate with Davis in the lineup.
The Timberwolves present a relatively easy matchup for James as the Lakers have the highest implied total on the slate tonight at 116 points. The game total of 224 points is also the highest on the slate. The Lakers play at the fastest Pace in the league this season, while the Timberwolves rank sixth.
This up-tempo game should feed right into how well James has been playing lately. FanDuel does have better value on this points prop at 31.5 points, so you can be more aggressive if you would like. I am sticking with DraftKings and the 30.5 points prop as James should have his way against this Timberwolves team.