NBA on Sunday is always a little bit of a crapshoot with so many players sitting out. Make sure to monitor the news on this six-game slate, but these two props feature players who are in great spots with a few of their star teammates not projected to play.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Dillon Brooks, Under 3.5 Assists (-180)
|Grizzlies vs. Wizards||Wizards -2|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Memphis Grizzlies have won five of their last six games but will likely be playing tonight without Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, who are both doubtful. They are still only two-point road underdogs against the Wizards, who have won three straight games as well–all without their star player Bradley Beal.
Dillon Brooks is going to shoot as many times as he can before his right arm falls off tonight. In his lone game without Morant, Brooks had 20 field goal attempts. Now that Bane is also out, that number could easily reach over 20 attempts. In that game, Brooks had a 32.9% Usage Rate, which is high for a shooting guard.
Despite shooting just 41.8% from the field this season, Brooks has over 14 field goal attempts per game for the fourth consecutive season. He is only averaging 2.1 assists per game as his main focus is shooting as much as possible. Even with Morant and Bane likely out, this is a great under to target.
Our model has Brooks projected for only 2.2 assists tonight, which is making this under the best prop line on the slate. He will likely have more potential assists and will get more minutes, but let’s be real, Brooks doesn’t want to pass the ball. I would even consider this under at 2.5 assists tonight as well.
Kevin Durant, Over 2.5 Steals and Blocks (+140)
|Nets vs. Lakers||Nets -4|
|Time | TV||9:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Kevin Durant is single-handedly trying to bring the Nets back over .500. They are close at 6-7 after winning four of their last five games. The Nets are four-point road favorites tonight against the Lakers, who have the second-worst record in the league, and this is a great matchup to target Durant.
We’ll be backing Durant in a little different way than most by looking at his steals and blocks prop line that sits at 2.5. Durant has gone over this prop in four straight games. He is doing everything for this Nets team by averaging over 30 points per game and shooting over 50% from the field for the 10th consecutive year. With Kyrie Irving out and Ben Simmons still limited, he is impossible to avoid.
The Lakers have allowed opponents to get 8.9 steals per game, which ranks as the third-highest in the league. They also rank in the top 10 in blocks allowed per game as well. The Lakers are a sloppy team, especially with LeBron James unlikely to play. Projected to play over 35 minutes tonight, Durant will have plenty of opportunities to get over this prop line for his steals and blocks.
Our model has Durant projected for 2.9 steals and blocks, and getting this prop with juice attached on DraftKings is very intriguing. There is too much value on this prop with how frequently it has hit and this great matchup.