NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
PJ Tucker | Jimmy Butler | Jaylen Brown | Al Horford
| Prop | Tucker (12-1) | Butler (16-1) | Brown (16-1, 12-1) | Horford (39-1) |
| Matchup | Celtics vs. Heat |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Book | FanDuel |
The Celtics and Heat meet in Miami Sunday night for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals. Celtics center Robert Williams, who was questionable entering tonight, is expected to start, according to media reports.
Ime Udoka said Robert Williams and Marcus Smart will both start with No minutes restrictions.
— Jay King (@ByJayKing) May 29, 2022
If Williams gets the nod for the opening tip against Bam Adebayo, the Heat center has the edge — he’s 5-2 against Williams over the past two seasons.
In the event that Al Horford (62% opening-tip win rate) jumps center instead, he would have the advantage as Horford is 3-1 against Adebayo on opening tips over the past two seasons.
The Celtics are at the top of the league at scoring first, with 65% conversion rate. The Heat are slightly below league average and score first 48% of the time.
PJ Tucker and Jimmy Butler have seen an increase in their early usage (i.e. taking one of the first three shots for their team) during the playoffs compared to the regular season for Miami.
For Boston, I’m focusing on Jaylen Brown and Horford given the former’s hit rate during the season and Miami’s vulnerability against the shooting guard position on first baskets.
Picks
- PJ Tucker First Basket (+1200, Risk 0.4 units)
- Jimmy Butler Exact Method: Other (+1600, Risk 0.3 units)
- Jaylen Brown Exact method: 3-Pointer (+1600, Risk 0.3 units)
- Jaylen Brown Exact Method: Other (+1200, Risk 0.5 units)
- Al Horford Exact Method: 3-Pointer (+3900, Risk 0.15 units)
Celtics vs. Heat First Basket Data
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