This Sunday features huge Game 4s on this NBA playoff slate as the Golden State Warriors are the only team that can close out a series sweep. There are a few unders on the board that I like, which is rare. After winning 2-of-3 props yesterday, let’s try and finish the weekend strong with three more props today.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Zach LaVine, Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)
|Bulls vs. Bucks||Bucks -4.5|
|Time | TV||1 p.m. ET | ABC|
After a big road victory in Game 2, the Chicago Bulls followed up that game with a 30-point home loss against the Milwaukee Bucks, even without Khris middleton. The Bulls will look to even up the series today as they are 4.5-point underdogs implied for only 107 points, which is the second-lowest on the slate.
The Bulls have only averaged 93.7 points per game during the postseason, which is the lowest among the 16 teams. The Bucks also lead the way in Defensive Rating as the Bulls have allowed the most rebounds per game. This is a tough matchup for the Bulls, but it’s still a game in which they can be successful.
The Bulls’ best shot is when Zach LaVine gets cooking from the perimeter. The Bucks allowed the most 3-pointers made and attempted during the regular season, while LaVine led the Bulls with 2.8 3-pointers made per game. He has also rebounded really well in this series, pulling down 10 rebounds in Game 1.
Our model has LaVine projected for 33.9 points and rebounds tonight, which is way above this line. I would definitely consider playing this line up to 27.5 points and rebounds to get better value. The Bulls need a big game from LaVine to tie this series at two apiece going back to Milwaukee for Game 5.
Aaron Gordon, Under 6.5 Rebounds (-125)
|Nuggets vs. Warriors||Warriors -4.5|
|Time | TV||3:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
Despite having the potential two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, the Denver Nuggets find themselves one game from elimination as they trail the Golden State Warriors 3-0 in this series. The Warriors are 4.5-point favorites as they look nearly unstoppable with a fully healthy roster. Can the Nuggets win one game?
It is obvious that the Nuggets miss Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. This supporting cast for Jokic hasn’t helped enough in this series. Aaron Gordon and Will Barton have been decent but not good enough. Granted, the Warriors are playing out of their minds and making 17 3-pointers per game.
Aaron Gordon did have his best game by far of the series last game by putting up a double-double with 18 points, 12 rebounds, and four assists. However, six of those 12 rebounds were offensive, which is one shy of his career-high. That was well over his season average and will be tough to replicate in game four.
It is tough to gather any rebounds when Jokic is on the floor. He was second behind Rudy Gobert in rebounding as he averaged a career-high 13.8 per game this season. Gordon has only hit this over in one game this series as he is projected for only 5.8 rebounds tonight. I like this under prop right where it is.
Trae Young, Under 9.5 Assists (-120)
|Hawks vs. Heat||Heat -2|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | TNT|
The Atlanta Hawks escaped Game 3 with a victory as they will look to tie up this series tonight against the Miami Heat. There are a lot of questionable players on this game for both sides, so make sure to follow along with our FantasyLabs news dashboard to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight.
Getting Clint Capela potentially back is a big piece for the Hawks as he has been upgraded to questionable with his knee injury. That would have to help Trae Young who is struggling in this series. He is averaging 19 points and 6.3 assists, while shooting 33.7% from the field and 17.8% from behind the arc.
His assist numbers have taken a major hit without Capela as his lob finisher, but this has also been a very difficult matchup. This season the Heat ranked fourth in Defensive Rating and third-to-last in Pace. This game still has a 221-point total, but the Hawks will need to work for most of their production.
An explosion game from Young is coming soon. He was so amazing last year in the playoffs leading the Hawks to the Eastern Conference Finals. Young has yet to have that breakout game scoring the ball. I love this assist prop even more if Capela is unable to play tonight. Young has yet to have a game with nine assists all series, so I would feel comfortable taking this at 8.5 assists.