Spurs vs. Nuggets Preview: Value on the Over/Under in Denver

Action Network contributor Shayne Trail breaks down how to bet the over/under in Friday evening's Spurs vs. Nuggets matchup in Denver.

>> Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.

Spurs vs. Nuggets Odds

Spurs Odds +7
Nuggets Odds -7
Over/Under 220
Time 9 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Tonight we have two highly skilled teams with different styles matching up against each other in each team’s second game of the season.

The Spurs dominated the lowly Magic while the Nuggets got revenge on the Suns with a road win in Phoenix on Wednesday. Which team will remain undefeated when they meet in Denver on Friday night?

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs came out hot in the season opener scoring an impressive 123 points with every member of the starting five all scoring double-digit points.

The Spurs are known to be a slower-paced team, and the bookmakers have priced this in. Over the past five seasons, they haven’t ranked higher than 15th in Pace.

In their season opening matchup against the Magic, the Spurs were unbelievably efficient at getting open looks. According to NBA tracking data, the 29 of the Spurs’ 30 3-point attempts were considered open and they shot 13-of-29 (44.8%) on those attempts.

Conversely, the Spurs have more to prove on defense. The Spurs ranked near the bottom of the league last season in both field goal percentage allowed (47.2%) and three-point accuracy allowed (37.7%), per NBA Advanced Stats. One game against the Magic (arguably the worst team in the NBA) isn’t a true test of whether their defense will be better.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets look to continue their success into their home opener after picking up an upset win on the road against the defending Western Conference champion Suns. Nikola Jokic continues his bid to repeat as MVP after dropping 27 points in the win over the Suns.

With the season having such a small sample size of data and the Nuggets returning a similar roster, including the same starting five, the Nuggets should pick up where they left off last year offensively.

Per NBA Advanced Stats, the Nuggets ranked eighth in 3-point shooting accuracy at 37.7% while shooting the fourth-highest percentage from the field last season at 48.5%.

Spurs-Nuggets Pick

This slow-paced Spurs team scored without much issue in their recent history, and as a result, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams. In the three most recent games, the Nuggets allowed the Spurs to score 119, 96, and 119.

The total in this game opened at 219 and has moved up to 220.5 at some books. Despite the movement, I think there’s value on the over here. In past October non-divisional games where the home team was favorited by 7 points and the total closed at 219 or higher, the over hit at a 60% rate (23-15) per Bet Labs. I predict two very different-styled but proficient offenses will push this game over the total with ease.

Pick: Over 220