Sky vs. Aces Game 1 Preview: 4 Ways to Play the Matchup

Action Network breaks down how to bet today's WNBA playoff matchup between the Sky and Aces and offers up a betting pick.

Sky vs. Aces Odds

Wednesday, Sept. 13
10 p.m. ET
Sky Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-118 / -108
Aces Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-118 / -108
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.

The Las Vegas Aces begin their postseason quest for back-to-back WNBA titles at home Wednesday night against the Chicago Sky. The Aces have been the best team in the league all season, but can they cover another huge spread against the scrappy Sky in Game 1 of their opening round series?

Here’s a look at the notable trends for each team, along with analysis and a pick from our Action Network contributors.

Chicago Sky

The Sky finished the season under .500 with a 18-22 record, but we’re 22-18 against the spread, which was the best mark in the WNBA. Chicago was much more profitable to bet on the road (11-8 ATS) than at home (10-10 ATS).

They also were the most profitable team among all playoff teams as underdogs with a 15-12 ATS record. In games where the Sky were double-digit dogs this season, they were an impressive 6-1 ATS, according to Bet Labs.

The Sky were 0-3 straight up against the Aces in the regular season, but covered in all three games against Las Vegas, which each closed with a spread 13.5 or higher.

Las Vegas Aces

The Aces had very little trouble with the majority of the league this season en route to their 34-6 regular season record. They played 31 games this season in which they closed as a double-digit favorite and were 17-14 ATS in those games. They also were virtually unstoppable at home going 19-2 SU and 13-8 ATS.

The total is something to watch for the Aces. They finished second on the league in Pace (98.58) and they went 24-17 to the over this season. However, the over was just 9-12 in Aces home games. At the time off this writing, 71% of the bets on the total are landing on the over, according to Action Network’s public betting data, but 63% of the money is on the under.

Sky-Aces Pick

Matt Moore and Dano Mataya discussed this matchup on the latest episode of the Buckets podcast, including how they are betting the series and Game 1. You can listen to the full episode below for their full analysis.

Mataya’s Game 1 Analysis: I love these games. When it comes to Aces, it feels like the Sky bring their A game. Ther fist matchup was a blowout until there was six minutes left and the Sky went on an 18-2 run to cover. I think the Sky have a legitimate chance to cover in both of these games.

I wouldn’t hate a moneyline play on the Sky in Game 1, which allows you to look for good value on the Aces live. (The Aces didn’t come out too strong last year and we were expecting them to throttle the Phoenix Mercury who ended up covering that first game.)

It’s an uphill battle, but still think 16.5 points is too high the way these matchups have gone. I think as long as the total stays at 170.5 or below, you’re safe playing the over between these two teams. There’s a definitely play on the first half over. We’ve seen so many teams come into Vegas and the Aces pour it on early — they are averaging 50.5 points at home in the first half.

Pick: Sky +16.5 | 1H Over (86.5)

Moore’s Game 1 Analysis: I have the total projected, as I hilariously have most Aces games, in the 180 range. The Sky were the worst transition defense in the league and allow the highest percentage of time in transition. The Sky are not good at stopping the ball and teams are able to get downhill very quickly to get transition and mid-transition opportunities and the Aces should feast there.

Pick: Over 170.5

Bryan Fonseca’s Player Prop: A’ja Wilson, if you can find her at 10 or fewer rebounds, is an over worth playing. Against the Chicago Sky, Wilson has a favorable matchup in every meaningful category. Her line at DraftKings is 9.5, it’s a number she’s gone over twice in three matchups against Chicago this season.

For more player props analysis, check out my preview of Wednesday’s Game 1 matchups here.