Saturday features just one NBA playoff game, and it’s between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns. This will be a fascinating series with both teams healthy and coming off 4-1 series victories in the first round.
We will break down Game 1 with a couple of player props featuring Jamal Murray and Devin Booker. Let’s start the weekend hot with our par of NBA player props today.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jamal Murray, Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
In the first round, Jamal Murray played like he was in the Bubble back in Orlando. He torched the Timberwolves with 27.2 points, 6.4 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game while shooting 42.9% from behind the arc. The way he was getting to his spots on a nightly basis in that series looked like the Jamal Murray of old: efficient and healthy.
Murray will get a matchup against 37-year-old Chris Paul, who has slowed down considerably on the defensive end. Their games are a little different, but Russell Westbrook had no trouble taking advantage of Paul’s defense. The Nuggets haven’t faced this new-look Suns team with Kevin Durant yet, but they are still three-point home favorites.
Our model has Murray projected for 31.4 points and rebounds in Game 1, which is well above this prop line. He can reach this over on points alone, but Murray is a consistent rebounder who has averaged four or more rebounds in each of his last four seasons. I love the over in this spot and would take it up to 29.9 points and rebounds if need be.
Devin Booker, Over 30.5 Points (-110)
Flipping sides but sticking with another guard, Devin Booker’s over 30.5 points prop looks very enticing. Scoring 31 points in a playoff game may seem high, but Booker averaged a ridiculous 37.2 points per game in the first round against the Clippers while shooting 60.2% from the field and 46.7% from behind the arc. He can get hot in a hurry.
Timberwolves shooting guard Anthony Edwards had his way with the Nuggets defense in their matchup, scoring more than 31 points per game despite an 18-point outing in Game 1. Booker is a much better shooter, and with a ton of attention going to Durant, he will get plenty of favorable matchups. Booker also led the team with a 29.6% Usage Rate.
The Suns are well-rested, but even on short days of rest in their first series, Booker and Durant both played more than 43 minutes per game. Expect another series for Booker with a large usage rate and as many minutes as he can handle. With easily attempting 20+ field goals, Booker will have plenty of chances to reach this over in Game 1 tonight.