Saturday features a very small four-game night slate that starts at 8 p.m. ET. Despite the small slate, there are two great props to target tonight. A Rudy Gobert under and an Anfernee Simons over are the headliners on the board.
As usual, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
Let’s get into the top NBA Player Props and Picks for Saturday.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Rudy Gobert, Under 14.5 REB + AST (-110)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Despite losing Karl-Anthony Towns, the Minnesota Timberwolves looked great last game getting revenge on the Memphis Grizzlies after they knocked them out of the playoffs last season. They are 6.5-point home favorites against the Thunder who may be playing without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
With no Towns for the next 4-6 weeks, Rudy Gobert should see an increase in production, but he has played very poorly lately. Over the last three games, Gobert is averaging 12.3 points and six rebounds per game, while failing to record an assist. Capturing assists is not Gobert’s game. He is averaging 0.9 assists per game, which basically makes this a rebound-only player prop.
There is no doubt that Gobert can get there with rebounds only, especially against the Thunder who rank 27th in Rebounding Percentage. However, 15 rebounds is still a ton to get and our model has Gobert projected for only 12.2 rebounds and assists in this matchup. A great matchup, but a large prop line.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Gobert bounced back with a great game as the Thunder also rank 27th in points allowed in the paint at 53.5 per game. This is Anthony Edwards team right now and everyone else including Gobert will be playing second fiddle. This is the second-best prop on the board tonight.
Anfernee Simons, Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-128)
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
One of the most intriguing games on the slate is the Utah Jazz hosting the Portland Trail Blazers. Both teams got off to incredible starts, but have faltered recently. The Jazz are 4.5-point favorites while winning back-to-back games after a cold stretch, and the Trail Blazers have lost seven of their last eight.
The Trail Blazers are dealing with a ton of injuries, but most notably Damian Lillard. He is expected to return tomorrow, so this might be Anfernee Simons last game for awhile without Lillard. In nine games without Lillard this season, Simons is averaging 27.2 points while making 4.7 3-pointers per game.
In those nine games, Simons also is attempted a ridiculous 11.7 3-pointers per game which is providing so many opportunities to reach this over prop. Four 3-pointers in a game is a lot, but Simons is second in the league behind Stephen Curry averaging 4.1 3-pointers per game. He can get hot from the perimeter.
The Jazz rank 22nd in Defensive Rating (113.4), entering tonight’s games while allowing 115.3 points per game. They are great at defending the 3-point line, but Simons is going to shoot so many times without Lillard it may not matter. Our model has Simons projected for exactly five made 3-pointers tonight.