We made it to the weekend!
With no NFL this weekend other than the Pro Bowl, it’s time to win some money in the NBA. There are three props on this six-game slate that I love. These are not household names, but we go where the value is and make our picks using the Action Labs Player Prop tool.
This Player Prop tool is used to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out the case for each of the three props and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Duncan Robinson, Under 13.5 Points (-125)
|Hornets vs. Heat||Heat -3|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | League Pass|
The Miami Heat are finally healthy! It has been a long while since we have said that. Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are all back, which is scary for the rest of the Eastern Conference as they are still second in the standings.
Duncan Robinson is an extremely boom-or-bust player. He relies on his outside shot for nearly all of his scoring. A whopping 84% of his field goal attempts have come from behind the arc this season. For his career, that number bumps up to 86%. If his shot is off, no points will be scored.
From a shooting standpoint, this matchup is fantastic. The Hornets are tied for the league’s most allowed 3-pointers made per game. They also rank 25th in Defensive Rating and second in Pace. This is why I’m not taking Robinson’s 3-point prop and focusing on his points. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this healthy Heat team and Robinson will sit on the back burner.
Despite having a career-high 18.3% usage rate, Robinson still isn’t anywhere close to any of the Heat players. Our model has Robinson projected to score only 9.8 points tonight. He has scored over six points just once in his last four games and during that time he has just one made field goal inside the arc.
There are plenty of sites offering 12.5 points for Robinson, which I would take as they have better value on this prop. Robinson could still make four 3-pointers and still come short of scoring 13 or more points. He is a one-dimensional player on a team that is filled with high-usage scorers.
Taking this prop at 13.5 points on PointsBet is where I am at, but I like 12.5 as well.
Quentin Grimes, Over 5.5 Points (-130)
|Lakers vs. Knicks||Lakers -2.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
This game between the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks is a battle of the two most inconsistent teams in the league. Both are struggling as the Lakers have lost four of their last five and the Knicks seven of their last nine.
The Lakers are small favorites as they host the Knicks tonight. The Knicks are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in at the moment with a 24-28 record. However, they have gotten promising minutes from rookie Quentin Grimes. His minutes fluctuate, but he is very productive when he plays.
He is tough to ignore in our Player Prop tool as nearly all of his over props are popping like crazy. Taking his over 5.5 points prop honestly seems like a steal. Grimes has scored six or more points in six of his last seven games. He has averaged 9.4 points per game during that stretch, which is great value.
Playing against the Lakers certainly helps in this situation as well. The Knicks play at the slowest Pace in the league, but the Lakers rank fourth in Pace this season. They also allow the fourth-most points in the league with 112.2 per game. The Lakers will also be playing without LeBron James, which should keep this game competitive. Grimes should feast on the Lakers’ second unit.
A lot of this comes down to whether or not Tom Thibodeau gives Grimes the playing time that he deserves, but our model has Grimes projected for 9.6 points tonight, which is well over the 5.5 prop.
Tre Mann, Over 2.5 Rebounds (-105)
|Kings vs. Thunder||Kings -6.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Oklahoma City Thunder are on a surprising three-game win streak and have another winnable game tonight against the Sacramento Kings.
The Thunder have been winning without star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who leads the team in points this season at 22.7 per game. With SGA out, Tre Mann is in the starting lineup and has averaged 36.5 minutes per game in his last two starts. During that time, Mann is averaging 19 points, 1.5 assists and 1.5 rebounds per game. Peripherals have been lacking, but should return.
Not only is Gilgeous-Alexander out tonight, but so are Aaron Wiggins and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. The minutes for Mann will be solidified and there is upside in this spot against the Kings.
The Thunder are implied for a slate-low 105 points tonight, but the Kings present a pretty nice matchup as they rank 29th in Defensive Rating this season. They also rank 25th in Rebounding Percentage, allowing 46.3 per game. The Thunder rank last while the Kings rank 19th in field goal percentage, which should make for a lot of rebounding opportunities for everyone playing.
There is more value on Mann’s rebounds + assists prop, but given the concern about the Thunder scoring points and the rebounding upside available in this matchup, sticking with Mann’s rebound prop is the way I am going tonight.
Our model has Mann projected for four rebounds tonight, but I would not touch this prop if it went to 3.5. I prefer the value we get at 2.5 rebounds.