Let’s get the weekend started on the right note with this juiced-up Saturday.
Looking at our NBA Player Prop Projections, it is obvious that there is a ton of value on this NBA nine-game slate. There are three props that stood out amongst the plethora of props featuring all guards: Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Let’s dive into today’s NBA player props and picks for huge Saturday during NBA Rivals Week.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Bradley Beal, Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (+115)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Leading off this juiced Saturday slate is Bradley Beal over 8.5 rebounds and assists. Kristaps Porzingis remains doubtful to play as the Wizards are four-point road underdogs against the Pelicans despite both of these teams going in the opposite direction. The Wizards have won four-straight games climbing the Eastern Conference standings, while the Pelicans have lost six-straight.
Our Prop Model has this over Beal bet as the best value on the board as he is projected for 9.9 rebounds and assists tonight. Beal is known for being an elite scorer in this league as he is shooting a career-high 51.9% from the field. He has also averaged 5.1 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game (8.5 combined).
Beal has played in four games without Porzingis this season and has gone over this prop line in two of those four. Over that span Beal has a 33.8% usage rate as he will have plenty of opportunity to reach this over tonight. This matchup features a 230.5 total as both teams rank in the middle of the pack for Pace.
Beal has played 30 minutes in back-to-back games as he works his way back from another injury. Expect his minutes to rise a little bit after a two-day break. Despite the Pelicans having a very strong defense, the ball will be in Beal’s hands to create offense a ton in this spot. Take the juice on Beal’s over tonight.
Chris Paul, Over 4.5 Rebounds (+130)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Another player returning from injury is Suns point guard Chris Paul. Getting Paul back in the starting lineup has really increased the production of this lineup. Even with Devin Booker still being out, the Suns had won four-straight before suffering a close loss to the Mavericks in their most recent game.
Over the last three games, Paul has picked up right where he left off dropping three-straight double-doubles with 19.3 points, 10.7 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game. The focus of tonight’s prop is on Paul’s rebounding. There is a ton of juice on this over 4.5 rebounds on DraftKings sportsbook as our Prop Model has Paul projected for 5.1 rebounds, exceeding this by a comfortable margin.
Since this is an island road game, we may need to keep an eye on the status of the 37-year old, but at the same time the Suns need to win this game as they have a stagnant 25-25 record this season. With the All-Star Weekend less than a month away, the Suns can’t afford a loss on the schedule to the Spurs.
The matchup against the Spurs is what really sets this prop on fire. They rank last in Defensive Rating (120.0) entering tonight’s games, and are allowing a league-high 122.1 points per game. The Spurs also rank seventh in Pace while only shooting 47.1% from the field, which will give Paul plenty of opportunity to reach this over. There is too much juice on this 4.5 rebounds prop tonight.
Tim Hardaway Jr., Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+126)
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The last prop of the night features Mavericks shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr. making over 3.5 3-pointers. Similar to Paul, there is a ton of juice on the over. Our Prop Model rates this as the second-best value on the board. This may be a high line, but we have Hardaway Jr. projected to make 4.3 3-pointers!
The main reason Hardaway Jr. looks so good in this spot is the Mavericks have to play without Luka Doncic and Christian Wood. These two combined this season are averaging 51.4 points and a 63.9% usage rate per game. That is a ton of usage and production to go around to role players like Hardaway Jr.
In the four games that Hardaway Jr. has played without Doncic this season, he is averaging three made 3-pointers per game and has gone over this prop line in two of those four games. He is also averaging 10.5 3-pointers attempted over that span with a 27.1% usage rate. The opportunities will be there tonight.
Another bonus to this over bet is the Jazz defense has plummeted to 26th in the league for Defensive Rating allowing 116.6 points per game. The Mavericks are 7.5-point road underdogs, so for them to be competitive Hardaway Jr. needs to have a big game. Spencer Dinwiddie‘s 3-point prop also looks great in our model, but we’ll take the juice with Hardaway Jr. hoping he catches fire.