Saturday features four games with two starting after 7 p.m. ET and two after 10 p.m. ET. With two games being played on NBA TV tonight, that is where we will look to target our props.
Who doesn’t love to actually watch their props play? These two picks feature big men, but the way we attack their props may be different than you may think.
As always, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Let’s dive in and find the edge on how to approach tonight.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Joel Embiid, Under 5.5 Assists (-111)
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The Philadelphia 76ers have won three-straight games, but their players are getting injured left and right. James Harden remains out, but Tyrese Maxey suffered an ankle injury last night and will not play tonight. Tobias Harris sat out last night and is questionable tonight, so it has been the Joel Embiid show.
Over the last three games, Embiid is averaging 44.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 4.0 blocks while shooting 45 of 79 (57%) from the field. Incredible numbers for arguably the best center in the game. During that time, Embiid also has a 45.5% usage rate. The entire offense is running through Embiid.
This prop is certainly a little risky due to how well he has played lately, but this season Embiid is only averaging 4.5 assists per game. It is a career-high, but he has only had six or more assists in three of his 11 games this season. Our model has Embiid projected for 4.5 assists, which is great value on this under.
The 76ers are two-point underdogs against the Timberwolves playing without most of their starters tonight. The addition of Rudy Gobert pairing with Karl-Anthony Towns may make life more difficult for Embiid. He will likely have no trouble getting shots up, but reaching six assists feels like a big ask for Embiid.
To place your bets on this and many, many other markets across the world of sports, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook right now!
Jusuf Nurkic, Under 27.5 PTS + REB + AST (-122)
|Spread||Trail Blazers -3.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz have the best two records in the Western Conference. What a bizarre start to this season. The Trail Blazers are small home favorites in their last home game before a four-game road trip. We will target another under prop with Jusuf Nurkic who is back from an injury.
In his last two games since returning from injury 13 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 0.5 assists while playing only 20 minutes per game. The lack of playing time is the major concern as Nurkic may not fully be healthy yet. The Jazz also don’t have a true big, so Nurkic could just as easily be played off the floor tonight.
Through 12 games this season, Nurkic is averaging 25.6 points, rebounds, and assists per game. That is nearly two stats per game below this prop line and that doesn’t account for the fact how little production Nurkic has provided over his last two games. This is one of the best player props on the board.
The Trail Blazers are implied for a pretty high 115.25 points, but a majority of their production comes from Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons who are both healthy for tonight’s game. This game has a 226.5 point total, but there is a lot of concern around Nurkic’s playing time and production since his injury.