This Saturday slate features 11 games with most NBA teams are off tomorrow due to the Super Bowl. This article will feature three props that stood out the most to me.
Let’s dive in!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Kyle Kuzma, Under 21.5 Points (-105)
|Wizards vs. Kings||Kings -3.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Wizards have struggled, losing seven of their last nine games, and are home underdogs against the Kings tonight. This is a close spread, but the Wizards are still playing without All-Star Bradley Beal.
It is impossible to ignore nearly all of Kyle Kuzma’s props when opening the Player Prop tool. Our projections have Kuzma projected for only 15.3 points tonight which provides so much value on his under props. There are many ways to go with Kuzma tonight, but after posting a triple-double in his last game against the Brooklyn Nets, I would rather focus on his points tonight.
The Wizards dealt Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans for Kristaps Porzingis, who will not be available. This is Kuzma’s team for the time being, but that also will draw more attention his way. He has only averaged 12 points per game in his last three games.
This matchup is a juicy one, as the Kings rank 29th in Defensive Rating and eighth in Pace this season. However, they did just acquire Domantas Sabonis, who will slow the game down and increase their subpar interior defense. Sacramento allows the most points in the paint this season with 52.3 per game.
There are many under props available on the board, but this points prop is where I landed. Kuzma will need to be heavily involved, but he can do more than just score the ball. He is shooting 36.1% in his last three games. PointsBet has this prop at 20.5 points if you are ultra confident.
Devin Vassell, Over 13.5 Points (-108)
|Pelicans vs. Spurs||Pelicans -5.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Spurs have elected to start second-year player Devin Vassell at shooting guard, which paid off. Vassell had 20 points as he shot 9-for-13 from the field while making both of his 3-point attempts in his last game, which was the Spurs’ first without Derrick White.
The Spurs did acquire Josh Richardson and Romeo Langford from the Boston Celtics as if they needed more wing players. However, both Richardson and Langford will be not playing tonight which will solidify the minutes for Vassell.
Vassell has had 14 or more points in three of his last five games and four of those games were with White playing. Our projections have Vassell projected for 14.5 points tonight. That isn’t incredible value, but it is enough in this spot.
The Pelicans rank 19th in Defensive Rating and get torched from the perimeter. They allow opponents to shoot 36.5% from behind the arc, which ranks third-highest in the league. Vassell should be able to take advantage of that, as he ranks third on the Spurs in 3-point percentage with 35%. He has made at least two 3-pointers in three of his last five games.
This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 229.5 points with the Spurs implied for 111.75 points. Vassell is in a great spot tonight. I would bet this up to 14.5 points tonight.
Kyrie Irving, Under 6.5 Assists (-130)
|Heat vs. Nets||Heat -10.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
To say the Nets are reeling right now is an understatement. They have lost 10-straight games and are now double-digit road underdogs against the Miami Heat. They are only implied for 105.25 points tonight.
James Harden has left town and Kevin Durant is still not healthy enough to play. Ben Simmons, Seth Curry and Andre Drummond are all likely out tonight, as well. It will be the Kyrie Irving show against this very strong defensive team.
Using our On/Off tool on FantasyLabs, Irving has a 32.9% usage rate with Harden and Durant off the floor this season. In nine of his last 10 games that Irving has played, he has had 20 or more field goal attempts. He will have to be aggressive once again if the Nets want to keep this game competitive.
The Heat rank sixth in Defensive Rating, allowing only 104.2 points per game. They also play at the fourth-slowest Pace in the league. This is a tall task for a struggling team. The Heat have the best record in the Eastern Conference.
Irving has had under six assists in four of his last five games. Our projections have Irving for 4.7 assists tonight. This is a very difficult matchup. The Nets will have a hard time scoring and keeping this game close. If they do, I would imagine it will be from Irving scoring the ball rather than dropping dimes.