We’re back at it with props for Saturday night in the NBA.
Tonight, I have provided three over props that I like, one that could make NBA history. The other two feature players who have seen a boost in production due to noteworthy injuries on their respective roster.
Let’s dive in and win some money this weekend.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jaren Jackson Jr., Over 20.5 Points (-104)
|Grizzlies vs. Rockets||Grizzlies -8|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Grizzlies continue to have multiple players out due to either COVID protocols and injuries. On Saturday night, get a home matchup against the surging Houston Rockets, who lost on Friday night to Milwaukee after winning seven straight games. However, the Grizzlies are still 8-point favorites.
Memphis’ frontcourt is currently quite thin, and it’s going to be without Ja Morant again tonight.
Using our On/Off tool on FantasyLabs, Jaren Jackson Jr. has a team-high +4.8% usage rate increase with Morant off the court this season in 359 minutes. That is a little odd since Jackson is a power forward, but he has been taking full advantage of Morant’s absence.
This matchup for Jackson and the Grizzlies is fantastic. The Rockets lead the league in Pace this season and are 21st in Defensive Rating. Houston has allowed 112 points per game, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league.
The Rockets have also allowed 47.4 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks 23rd in the league. Jackson should have plenty of opportunities to score in this up-tempo environment.
Not only has Jackson seen an increase in usage lately, but he has also been extremely productive. He has averaged 25.5 points per game in his last two games while attempting 19 field goals in both games. Jackson has also made at least two 3-pointers in each of his last six games, while Houston allows 39.1 3-point attempts per game, the fourth highest mark in the league.
Shop around for the best value on this prop, but I love the value that we got on FanDuel at the line of 20.5 points. I would consider taking it at 21.5, but I doubt it gets that high now that Dillon Brooks is expected to play. It may go down, which I would love.
If Jackson can stay out of foul trouble, he should be able to get over this prop pretty easily given his recent usage.
Zach LaVine, Over 4.5 Assists (-135)
|Heat vs. Bulls||Heat -1|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Bulls are decimated with players out due to the COVID protocols. A majority of those players are also guards and wings with Derrick Jones Jr., Javonte Green, Matt Thomas, Coby White and most importantly DeMar DeRozan out. Chicago is still only a one-point underdog against the Heat tonight.
Those absences will put more on Zach LaVine’s plate on Saturday night. In two games without DeRozan this season, LaVine is averaging 27.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists with a usage rate of 32.8%. No DeRozan means he’ll get as many opportunities as he can handle.
The major stat that LaVine has seen an increase in without DeRozan has been his assist rate. He has over 4.5 assists in each of his last five games without his potential All-Star teammate and has averaged 8.5 assists per game. Another thing to note is Alex Caruso is also questionable to play tonight after missing the Bulls last two games. Keep an eye on his status since his absence in the backcourt would put even more on LaVine. Regardless of Caruso’s status, though, I like this prop either way.
Miami will continue to be without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, and it has struggled defensively without them. With the duo in the lineup, the Heat have a Defensive Rating of 103.2. Without them, it’s 115.3.
I would not be surprised if this line was moved to 5.5 assists before tip because of how often LaVine has gone over it of late. I would still be comfortable betting it at 5.5 if we were provided more value.
Stephen Curry, Over 6.5 3-Pointers (-110)
|76ers vs. Warriors||Warriors -3|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
We have a chance to see history tonight.
Stephen Curry is 10 3-pointers away from passing Ray Allen for the most 3-pointers made in NBA history. If you like going down Narrative Street, this is the prop for you. Curry will be playing against his brother, Seth, and the 76ers tonight.
We all know Curry is going to be gunning for the record. He has made a career-high 5.5 3-pointers per game this season, which leads the league by a wide margin, with the next closest player at 3.5. Curry has also attempted a career-high 13.3 3-pointers per game.
It’s obvious that Curry is trying to get this record since he has attempted 17 3-pointers in two out of his last three games.
Curry has made 10 or more 3-pointers in a game 22 times in his career. However, for this prop he only needs seven 3-pointers made. He has done that in 101 of his 786 career regular-season games. That is only 12.8%, but this is a special circumstance.
I don’t recommend doing this often, but it’s time to toss the projections out for this prop and go with the narrative.
The matchup with the 76ers isn’t all that ideal since Philadelphia has played at the slowest Pace in the league this season. The Sixers have also allowed only 33.6 3-point attempts per game, which is the eighth lowest in the league.
However, Curry is a different beast. He has only played in Philadelphia once in the last two years, but he scored 49 points and made 10 3-pointers in 17 attempts that one time.
If you want to get spicy, I love the idea of taking an alternative line with Curry making over 9.5 3-pointers tonight. However, if you don’t think he can get the record because of the matchup and the 76ers playing too slow, I would still recommend taking this prop of over 6.5 3-pointers made. Curry is going to do his best to get the record tonight.
I will take this prop at any number up to 9.5. That seems absurd to even type out, but it is true. Curry is getting the record.