NBA Player Props Tonight
Welcome to the second weekend of the NBA season — and welcome to the best NBA player props today, with picks and bets for Saturday, November 4.
This seven-game slate features a ton of intriguing matchups for the second day of the In-Season Tournament. If today is anything like yesterday, expect close matchups throughout the day. Five of the seven games last night were a one possession game in the final minute. The Celtics could ruin the fun by continuing to beat everyone by a landslide, but this should be a great day of basketball.
These three props below all look incredible in our Props Model, so let’s break it down!
Christian Wood Over 6.5 Rebounds
The Los Angeles Lakers continue to be decimated with injuries to their role players as Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, and Jarred Vanderbilt are all out, while Taurean Prince is questionable. These injuries will allow more playing time for Christian Wood who has 27 and 29 minutes in his last two games. In back-to-back games, Wood is averaging 9.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. He has been very active on the glass with 11.5 rebound chances per game.
Outside of Anthony Davis and LeBron James, the Lakers’ are desperately looking for another rebounder. Wood has been bounced around from team-to-team, but he always brings a tenacity on the glass. In his eight-year career, Wood has played for eight different teams. However, in five of his last six seasons, Wood has averaged 7.3 or more rebounds per game. When given the minutes, Wood can produce, and tonight he is projected to play 25 minutes.
In our Props Model, Wood is projected to haul down 8.9 rebounds in this matchup. These two teams already played on Monday night and Wood had nine points and nine rebounds. Davis finished with a season-high 19 rebounds, so this is an exploitable matchup for the Lakers frontcourt. I wouldn’t mind getting plus-money at over 7.5 rebounds.
Pick: Christian Wood Over 6.5 Rebounds (-140)
Keegan Murray Over 21.5 PTS + REB
De’Aaron Fox remains out for the Kings with an ankle injury, but they are still 3.5-point road favorites against the Rockets tonight. Fox leads the Kings’ in scoring with 31.3 points per game and has a 33.6% usage rate, so with him sidelined, there is plenty of usage and production to go around. Keegan Murray looks the best in our Props Model as he is projected for 24.7 points and rebounds. His 21.5 points and rebounds prop on FanDuel feels a little too low.
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Through four games, Murray is averaging 14.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. In his lone game without Fox, Murray could not make anything as he was 4-for-15 from the field and 0-for-7 from behind the arc. It was the first game that Murray failed to make at least three 3-pointers. In the other three games, Murray got over this prop line with ease. Expect a bounce back performance for Murray, especially in this elite matchup against the Rockets.
Adding Murray’s rebounds to this prop feels necessary with how well he is crashing the glass in his second year and how poor the Rockets have been rebounding the ball. The Rockets rank 29th in Rebounding Percentage at 45.5% as opponents have hauled down 48.3 rebounds per game.
This is a great matchup for Murray without Fox to fill it up and grab a plethora of rebounds. He has averaged 23.3 points and rebounds per game in his first three games, so I would feel comfortable taking this prop at a 22.5 points and rebounds line.
Pick: Keegan Murray Over 21.5 Pts+Rebs (-113)
Kristaps Porzingis Over 17.5 Points
Outside of their four-point victory in the season opener, the Boston Celtics have yet to have a close game. They have a +20.5 point differential average, which leads the league by over eight points. In their last game, the Celtics scored 155 points, so their starters are well-rested for this road game against the Nets, where they are 9.5-point favorites.
In his first season with the Celtics, Kristaps Porzingis came out of the gates firing with a 30-point performance in the season opener. He shot 8-for-15 from the field, including five 3-pointers against the Knicks. Porzingis can score at all three levels and should have no problem filling it up against the Nets frontcourt without their starting scenter Nic Claxton. The Nets have allowed 52.4 points per game in the paint, which is tied for the seventh-highest in the league.
Our Props Model has Porzingis projected to score 21.4 points in this matchup, which is well over his prop line. Porzingis is third on the team in usage rate behind Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but there are enough points to go around especially in this matchup where the Nets struggle on the interior more than the perimeter defensively. With an 118.5-point implied total and being on the best offense in the league, I would bet this prop up to 19.5 points.