This Saturday features a seven-game slate with games starting at 6 p.m. ET. Under props are usually not all that fun to bet, but with juiced odds behind both of them, this combo may be worth while.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
De’Aaron Fox, Under 25.5 Points (+105)
|Kings vs. Heat||Heat -4.5|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Sacramento Kings are one of two winless teams this season sitting at 0-4. They are home underdogs tonight against the Miami Heat who have also had a tough time getting out of the starting gate. With such a great defense, this is a very tough spot to target De’Aaron Fox despite his incredible start to the year.
Fox is averaging over 30 points per game with a true shooting percentage of 67.4%. He has made 55% or more of his shots in every game. That is way beyond anything he has done in his career, so expect those numbers to come way down. They may come down tonight in this matchup against the Heat.
Through four games, the Heat already are one of the best defensive teams statistically like last season. They rank fourth in Defensive Rating and play at the third-slowest Pace in the league. Playing against the Heat is one of the worst environments for production an opposing player can find himself in.
Finding players who struggle against the Heat is not uncommon, but Fox has had his fair share. In his last six matchup against the Heat, Fox is shooting 38.5% from the field and 15.6% from behind the arc. During that time, Fox is averaging 17.8 points per game.
Our model has Fox projected for 24.5 points tonight, so getting this prop at juiced odds on DraftKings is a great spot to be.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Under 17.5 PTS +REB +AST (+100)
|Mavericks vs. Thunder||Mavericks -10|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
After back-to-back victories against the Clippers at home, the Thunder head back on the road tonight to take on the Mavericks as double digit underdogs. They are implied for a slate-low 104.25 points as the Mavericks continue to play at one of the league’s slowest paces. Another tough spot for the Thunder.
The top four props in our model are all under props for Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Each prop looks great, but the one that stands out the most is taking his under points, rebounds, and assists at even-money on FanDuel. This prop has much worse odds on other sportsbooks, which is a reminder to shop around.
This under prop has hit in four of his first five games as Robinson-Earl is averaging 7.6 points, four rebounds, and one assist this season. The other part that stands out the most is his playing time. After seeing 22.2 minutes in 49 games last season, Robinson-Earl is down to only 18.8 per game this season.
Whichever under you take from Robinson-Earl feel confident as this is not only a slow-paced game, but he hasn’t done much when given the minutes. Our model has Robinson-Earl projected for only 10.4 points, rebounds, and assists tonight, which is well under this prop line. Lock in these two juiced props.