Welcome to weekend basketball! We are rolling with three props that I think the books are slow on. Make sure to always shop around for the best price.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
Saturday NBA Player Props
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 36.5 PTS + REB + AST (-115)
|Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies||Timberwolves -1.5|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
Karl-Anthony Towns and the Minnesota Timberwolves look to make it three straight home victories tonight as they welcome in the Memphis Grizzlies. The betting market expects this game to be close, which makes this Towns prop more valuable.
I’m going over 36.5 with Towns in all three major categories combined tonight (points, rebounds, and assists). In 10 games at home this season, Towns is averaging 24.4 points per game, 10.2 rebounds per game, while shooting 52.2% from the field and 49.2% from 3-point range. Compare that to on the road where he is averaging 20.8 points per game, 8.2 rebounds per game and shooting 47.5% from the field.
Despite the emergence of Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell, who both have a higher usage rate than Towns this season, it is Towns who still runs the show for the Timberwolves. He is leading the team in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks this season. He can be productive in a lot of ways when he is on the floor, which is why I want to take his points, rebounds, and assists tonight.
In their last meeting in Memphis, Towns sent this game into overtime with a ridiculous bank shot 3-pointer. The Timberwolves went on to lose, but Towns had 25 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists. Playing against Steven Adams can be difficult, but not for Towns. He averages 24.8 points per game, 10.4 rebounds per game, and 2.1 assists per game against Adams for his career.
Lastly, Towns is projected to have 42.8 points, rebounds, and assists in our Props dashboard. That provides a lot of room to get this over tonight. I like most of Towns’ props tonight, but this one stood out the most to me.
I would take this up to 38.5.
Donovan Mitchell Over 25.5 Points (-118)
|Kings vs. Jazz||Jazz -7.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET|
This is a line that I would definitely do some shopping on, as FanDuel was the only book with a prop posted on Saturday morning. But I love Donovan Mitchell tonight.
Mitchell and the Utah Jazz have won their last two games by an average of 25.5 points. That resulted in Mitchell only playing an average of 25.5 minutes per game. He still averaged 16.5 points per game during that time.
I realize the Jazz are 7.5-point favorites again tonight on the road against the Kings. Despite being 6-10 this season, the Kings actually have a points differential of only -1 so they have been very competitive. The Jazz are also only 4-3 on the road this season compared to 6-2 at home.
This game should be closer than the past two and this is fantastic for Mitchell, who should be well rested. The Kings rank 24th in Defensive Rating and eighth in Pace this season. They have allowed 110.3 points per game which is the fifth highest this season. Mitchell should get back to doing what he does best, which is scoring the basketball.
Since coming into the league, Mitchell has led the Jazz in scoring. He has averaged over 20 points per game in every season. Despite the dip in production lately, Mitchell still ranks fourth in the entire league in usage rate this season with 33.7%.
I have a good feeling we can get a good number with great value so shop around. I would bet this total to 26.5 points, but I will still gladly take it at 25.5 points on FanDuel tonight.
Andre Drummond, Over 23.5 PTS + REB (-105)
|Trail Blazers vs. 76ers||Trail Blazers -6|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET|
Andre Drummond and the Philadelphia 76ers have been very disappointing lately. The 76ers have lost five of their last six games and now go on the road to face the Portland Trail Blazers who are 7-1 at home this season.
For Drummond, the last two games have been abysmal. Nikola Jokic got him in foul trouble against the Denver Nuggets, which resulted in a performance of four points, six rebounds, and five personal fouls. The game before that, the “Stifle Tower” Rudy Gobert basically eliminated Drummond. He played 12 minutes and had six points and six rebounds as the 76ers lost 120-85.
The matchup for Drummond tonight is a little different. Jokic and Gobert rank first and second in the league in rebounds. Those two also had the best Defensive Real Plus Minus for centers last season. Trail Blazers Jusuf Nurkic isn’t too far behind in the rebounding category, but isn’t near the defender. Drummond should bounce back tonight.
The Trail Blazers are 26th in Defensive Rating this season as they have given up 109.1 points per game. They are a completely different beast at home, but I don’t feel like the books are giving Drummond any credit. In seven games without Joel Embiid this season, Drummond has averaged 14.3 points per game and 10 rebounds per game. That includes those two duds I mentioned.
The Trail Blazers have been a very solid rebounding team this season, but that is Drummond’s strong suit so I needed to involve rebounding in this prop tonight. I like a lot of Drummond’s over props, but his points and rebounds over 23.5 on DraftKings seemed to have the most value.
We have him projected for 28.8 points and rebounds in our Props dashboard. I would bet this up to 25.5.