Saturday features a very small two-game slate with the Heat vs. Mavericks and the Pelicans vs. Clippers. Both games have around a 225 total as all four teams are fighting for playoff positioning in their respective conferences.
This article will have two player props — Jimmy Butler and Brandon Ingram. Let’s dive into some player props today!
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jimmy Butler, Under 6.5 Rebounds (-130)
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Despite losing three-straight games, the Heat find themselves basically locked into the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference. They are favored by one point against the Mavericks, but may have to play without Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry who are both questionable. This line may move if they are ruled out.
Even if Adebayo and Lowry are out, this player prop may stay where it’s at and I would still like the under on Jimmy Butler’s rebounds. In three games without Adebayo this season, Butler is averaging only six rebounds per game, which is basically identical to his 5.9 per game in 58 games playing alongside Adebayo.
The Mavericks have lost five of their last six games, but need to get hot to avoid missing the play-in tournament entirely. They have been an extremely poor rebounding team ranking second to last in Rebounding Percentage, but Butler has averaged only three rebounds per game in his last four games.
Our model has Butler projected for 5.3 rebounds tonight as he has averaged under six rebounds per game in each of his last two seasons. Taking this under rebound prop looks like one of the best on the board. If Adebayo ends up playing, I would take this under prop down to 5.5 rebounds, if that was offered.
Brandon Ingram, Over 6.5 Assists (+100)
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Winners of six of their last seven games, the Pelicans find themselves tied with the Lakers for the seventh seed in the Western Conference standings. The Pelicans are three-point home favorites against the Clippers who will continue to play without their All-Star Paul George who has a knee injury.
With Zion Williamson still out, Brandon Ingram continues to play at an elite level. During their last seven games, Ingram is averaging 29.4 points and 8.6 assists per game while shooting 52.7% from the field. He leads the Pelicans with 11.9 potential assists per game, which is three more than CJ McCollum.
The Pelicans have an implied team total of 114.75 points, which is the highest amongst the four teams. The Clippers rank middle of the pack in Defensive Rating and assists allowed, but this new playing style of Ingram is leading the Pelicans to success. His peripherals have been jumping like crazy. In his last seven games, he has two triple-doubles and three double digit assist games.
Our model has Ingram projected for 7.3 assists, which is nearly a full assist higher than his player prop. This is also a good reminder to shop around for the best odds as BetMGM has his over on 6.5 assists at even-money tonight. Based on how well he has played lately, I wouldn’t mind this prop at 8.5 assists.