After a chaotic last few minutes before the first games of the NBA slate last night, hopefully things are a little more quiet tonight. There are eight games with one early matchup between the Orlando Magic and Sacramento Kings. This article features one prop bet from that game and two props from the seven-game main slate.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jalen Suggs, Under 15.5 Points (-120)
|Magic vs. Kings||Kings -3.5|
|Time | TV||5 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
If you are looking for some early action, get in on this Jalen Suggs under points prop. The Magic shocked the basketball world with a one-point victory over the Warriors last game for just their second win of the season. Suggs exploded for a team-high 26 points in his second game back from injury.
However, even though Suggs has a better matchup tonight against the Kings, we’ll gladly take the under for his points. Last season Suggs averaged 11.8 points per game while shooting a putrid 36.1% from the field and 21.4% from behind the arc. His shooting numbers barely improved to 44.7% and 29.2%.
Not only is Suggs a poor shooter, but the Magic drafted Paolo Banchero with the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft. Banchero leads the Magic with a 29.2% usage rate while averaging 21.8 points per game. Cole Anthony is still out, but even if Suggs attempts around 15 shots, I’ll side with this under prop.
Our model has Suggs projected for exactly his season average last season of 11.8 points tonight. The Kings may only have one win as well, but they are 3.5-point road favorites with the Magic implied for 111 points. Even though this is a strong matchup, I’ll take a bet on Suggs’ true shooting coming back to Earth.
Rudy Gobert, Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)
|Timberwolves vs. Rockets||Timberwolves -8.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Timberwolves have lost three-straight games as they are now close to double digit favorites at home against the Rockets. It hasn’t been the best start for the Timberwolves since the addition of Rudy Gobert, but there is plenty of time to figure out how to best utilize Gobert in this talented offense.
This is a get-right spot for the Timberwolves against the Rockets who have the worst record in the league at 1-8 and are 0-6 on the road. With a 231 point total, this game is likely going to be a shootout. Both teams were first and second in pace last season and they are trending in a similar direction this year.
Gobert leads the league with 13.9 rebounds per game and will have plenty of chances to build on that. The Rockets were 28th in Rebounding Percentage last season, but adding Jabari Smith has helped those numbers. However, with Smith out this game, Gobert should absolutely feast in the paint tonight.
Through nine games, the Rockets have allowed 53.3 points per game in the paint, which ranks 25th in the league. Our model has Gobert projected for 30.9 points and rebounds as he has averaged a double-double with 12.6 points and 13.9 rebounds per game this season. Great spot to target the Stifle Tower.
Justice Winslow, Under 14.5 Points + Assists (-135)
|Suns vs. Trail Blazers||Suns -10|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Did not expect the Suns first home loss to come to the Trail Blazers, especially playing without Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons. Jerami Grant hit the game-winning buzzer-beater to take the Trail Blazers to an impressive 6-2 record. The Suns will get revenge tonight as they are favored by double digits.
When looking at our model Justice Winslow under props are by far the best on this seven-game slate. Picking which prop to bet is the tough part, but it doesn’t feel like you can go wrong. Winslow did close last night and played over 26 minutes for the first time all season, but Simons could return tonight.
This bet is expecting Simons back in the lineup, as Winslow can rack up assists in a hurry if Simons is out. However, on the season Winslow is averaging only 7.4 points and 3.9 assists per game. Our prop model has him projected for a combined 8.6 points and assists making this the best prop bet on the board.
The Suns are one of the best defenses in the league and are favored by 10 points as the Trail Blazers have a slate-low 103.25 implied point total. It is tough to back anyone from this Trail Blazers team right now. Make sure to monitor the Simons news, but take all of the Winslow under props tonight.