Welcome to the weekend! There are some juicy games on this slate including the Nets and Warriors to round off the night. Three points prop caught my eye on this six-game slate of NBA games. I also included a Super Boost on Caesars Sportsbook that I found for the Nets and Warriors game. Let’s dive in!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Richaun Holmes, Over 10.5 Points (-120)
|76ers vs. Kings||76ers -10.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Kings are one of the biggest underdogs on the slate tonight in Philadelphia against the 76ers. Sacramento has really struggled lately losing 10 of its last 12 games, but it at least has gotten Richaun Holmes back from injury.
The minutes and production have increased for Holmes since his return. Over the last three games, Holmes has averaged 12.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. He has averaged 25.7 minutes per game during that time, despite playing fewer minutes against the Celtics due to a 128-75 blowout. The Kings are a bad team, but Holmes should play enough to get over this points prop.
Playing against Joel Embiid always presents foul trouble concern, but it also should solidify the minutes for Holmes. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should get upwards of 30 minutes tonight. The 76ers rank 28th in Pace this season, but this game has the third-highest total on the slate at 223 points.
There are several Holmes over props that are popping in our model tonight. His points stood out the most as Holmes is doing a much better job scoring the ball recently. I would take this prop up to 11.5 points tonight seeing as though Holmes is averaging 12.7 points per game in his last three games.
Ja Morant, Over 27.5 Points (-135)
|Grizzlies vs. Wizards||Grizzlies -5.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Western Conference All-Star Starter Ja Morant has a really nice ring to it. Morant has been absolutely incredible lately as he has led the Grizzlies to the third best record in the league. They have won 25 of their last 32 games! They are favored by 5.5 points at home against the Wizards to keep the train rolling.
Last night Morant recorded his fifth-straight 30-point game and highest-scoring triple-double in franchise history. He has simply gone nuclear lately. Over the past five games, Morant is averaging 33.4 points, 8.8 assists, and 8.4 rebounds per game. During that time he is shooting 49.3% from the field while attempting an absurd 26.8 field goals per game — just straight ballin’!
This is the best game environment on the slate. The total leads the way with 230 points as the Grizzlies are implied for 117.75 points. Morant ranks fifth in usage rate this season, but has increased that number dramatically over the past few weeks. Picking a prop was difficult as I love most of his over props.
To keep the flow of the article, I decided to go with his point props of 27.5. He has scored 30 or more points in five-straight games and I think that trend continues tonight. The Wizards rank 21st in Defensive Rating this season which also helps Morant. However, the way he has played lately he can do this against any defense. He has done a great job in other stats as well, but points is where I’ll be. Let’s go for another 30-burger. I would take this up to 29.5 points.
Stephen Curry, Over 25.5 Points (-115)
|Warriors vs. Nets||Warriors -8|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
The Warriors have officially gotten out of their losing slump as they have won six of their last seven games. Playing at home certainly helps as this is their last leg of a seven-game home stand. They are 8-point favorites against the Nets. The Warriors lead the league with a home record of 23-4 this season.
Did Stephen Curry also come out of his shooting slump last game? We can only hope. Curry scored 29 points while shooting 50% from the field and 60% from behind the arc last game. On the season, Curry is still shooting a career-low 41.8% from the field and 37.7% from behind the arc. Despite the shooting struggles, he is still attempting 20 field goals per game. Keep chucking!
Kevin Durant remains out for the Nets as he deals with a knee injury. Durant doesn’t get the defensive respect that he deserves. In the 12 games that he has missed this season, the Nets Defensive Rating has dropped from 109.4 to 117.4 per game. The Warriors are coming off of a game where they just put up 124 points while making 20 3-pointers for the fifth time this season.
This is a matchup Curry has and can exploit. He has scored 27 or more points in each of his last four home games against the Nets. The Warriors are implied for a slate-high 118.5 points as this game features the second-highest total at 229 points. Our model has Curry projected to score 31.5 points tonight.
Caesars Sportsbook is offering a Super Boost (+120) with a max bet of $25 if Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving both score over 19.5 points tonight. As you can tell I love the Curry side and Irving has averaged 27.8 points per game this season without Durant in the lineup. That is a great super boost to take!