Saturday features a six-game NBA night slate as the regular season is coming to a close with roughly 12 games left for each team. Using our NBA Prop Model, there are three rebound player props that look incredible for this slate.
In our Clash the Glass rebound prop parlay, make sure to target Myles Turner, Bam Adebayo and Jaren Jackson Jr. Let’s start the weekend off on a high note!
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Myles Turner, Under 6.5 Rebounds (-113)
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
After beating the Bucks on the road by 16 points, the Pacers may be peaking at just the right time to make one last playoff push. They face another Eastern Conference juggernaut tonight, before going back on the road for a four-game road trip. Indiana is a six-point home underdog against the 76ers.
Arguably the worst matchup for any opposing center is going up against Joel Embiid, who is averaging a league-high 33.5 points and 10.1 free throws made per game. This matchup has specifically been really difficult for Myles Turner, who seems to get into foul trouble every game against the 76ers big man.
In 12 games against Embiid in his career, Turner is averaging 8.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 23.5 minutes per game. Turner faced Embiid 12 days ago and it was the same story. Turner fouled out while only playing 17 minutes and pulled down zero rebounds. Our Model has Turner projected for 4.8 rebounds tonight, which has been his average against Embiid in his career.
This is a back-to-back for the 76ers, but Embiid only played 29 minutes last night and the 76ers are only 2 1/2 games out of first place and one game back of the second seed in the Eastern Conference standings. It’s hard to see him sitting out.
Take the under on Turner’s rebounds down to 5.5, if that is on the table.
Pick: Myles Turner Under 6.5 Rebounds (-105)
Bam Adebayo, Under 8.5 Rebounds (-125)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The second under rebound prop of the day to target is on Bam Adebayo against the Bulls. After beating the Timberwolves in double overtime last night, the Bulls are four-point home underdogs against the Heat who have won five of their last seven games, all wins coming at home however.
Since the All-Star break, Adebayo is only averaging 6.7 rebounds per game as he has captured nine or more rebounds twice in that 12-game span. Adding Kevin Love has plummeted Adebayo’s rebounding numbers. In the 11 games that he has played alongside Love, Adebayo is averaging only 6.6 rebounds per game compared to 9.9 per game in the 55 games without him.
The Bulls may have tired legs after their double overtime victory, but they need every victory possible to make the playoffs coming down the stretch. Overall this season, the Bulls are in the middle of the pack in both Rebound Percentage and rebounds allowed per game. Nikola Vucevic has averaged over 11 rebounds per game for the fourth consecutive season.
Our NBA Model has Adebayo projected for only 6.8 rebounds in this matchup. Another factor is this total is by far the lowest on the slate at 217.5 points. The Heat rank 28th in Pace (97.04) this season as this matchup will present a lack of rebound opportunities. Take the under on Adebayo down to 7.5 rebounds.
Jaren Jackson Jr., Over 7.5 Rebounds (+108)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Our last rebound player prop of the night is Jaren Jackson Jr. that is delivering juice on the over. The versatile big man has been a scoring machine with Ja Morant sidelined. He has scored over 20 points in five of his last seven games, while contributing on the glass as well hitting this over in three of his last six.
The Grizzlies are coming off of a massive 29-point comeback, which is the largest of the NBA season, winning in overtime against the Spurs last night. They’re home favorites against the Warriors as they remain tied with the Kings for the second seed in the Western Conference. The Warriors are a completely different team on the road, with a lousy 7-28 record.
Jackson has fared well in this matchup against Draymond Green and the Warriors over the years. Even in their last meeting on March 9, Jackson had nearly a double-double with 21 points and nine rebounds. The Warriors are also an average rebounding team, so this isn’t a bad matchup by any means.
Our NBA Model has Jackson projected to record 8.3 rebounds, which is comfortably over this juiced rebound prop. If this prop dropped to 6.5 rebounds, I would absolutely hammer it. Jackson should have plenty of opportunities to capture this over as this game features a 236.5-point total. The Warriors lead the league with 43.2 3-point attempts per game and Pace.
Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds (+108)