PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
NBA Player Prop & Pick
Anthony Davis, Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
As always, Game 1s offer us player prop bettors a chance to reset and explore edges in a brand new playoff matchup. With the Nuggets and Lakers squaring up in the Western Conference Finals, I’m keying in on Anthony Davis to have a big start to the series.
Davis has been a bit mercurial during these playoffs; he’s averaging 35.3 combined points and rebounds per game, but his range of outcomes has spanned from 18 to 53 P+R. Overall, he’s cleared this line in half of the 12 playoff games.
In looking at the matchup against the Nuggets, the stars have aligned for Davis to put together a strong Game 1.
First, Davis has produced at high levels against the Nuggets and Nikola Jokic during his tenure in Los Angeles. In the nine full games he’s played in the regular season against the Nuggets, Davis has eclipsed this line five times. As great of a player Nikola Jokic is, he’s not a strong rim protector – the Nuggets allowed the fourth-highest field goal percentage, and the eighth-most made baskets per game, within six feet of the basket this season.
Second, the rest factor also works in the Brow’s favor. Davis and the Lakers are operating on three full days of rest; when AD has had at least two days of rest between games this season (excluding injuries), he’s cleared this line in 15 of 22 games (including the playoffs). I expect the Lakers to establish Davis early and often in an effort to exploit the matchup against Jokic. Los Angeles will also want to save the legs of a 38-year-old LeBron James for later in the series.
I have Davis projected at 39 points and rebounds tonight and would play this line comfortably up to over 36.5 P+R.
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