Tuesday NBA Player Prop: Fade Rozier vs. the Knicks

PropBetGuy breaks down his player prop bet for Tuesday, March 7, a fade of Charlotte Hornets guard Terry Rozier against the New York Knicks.

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NBA Player Prop & Pick

Terry Rozier, Under 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)

Odds (-122)
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Books Available FanDuel

Despite Terry Rozier taking over as the Hornets’ primary point guard with LaMelo Ball injured, I’m looking to fade Scary Terry on his PRA line tonight.

Rozier is averaging 33.1 PRA across 22 games without Ball this season. However, the Hornets have dealt with a multitude of injuries to other rotation players, which has inflated Rozier’s production and usage.

Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre and PJ Washington are all expected to play tonight. With each of the three capable of putting up big stat lines, Rozier is under this PRA line in each of the three games since Ball broke his ankle.

And tonight, production won’t come easy in general. The Knicks are not only the NBA’s fourth-slowest team in Pace, but they have also allowed the fourth-fewest PRA to point guards over the last 15 games.

Rozier figures to draw the matchup against both Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley, both of whom are in the 87th percentile of Defensive Plus/Minus. The Knicks’ pick-and-roll defense has taken a major step forward with Mitchell Robinson back manning the middle.

Even without Ball, it’s a tough and slow matchup for the enigmatic Rozier. I have the eight-year veteran projected at 28 PRA and would play this line down to under 30.5 PRA.

Pick: Terry Rozier Under 31.5 PRA (-122) | Play to Under 30.5 PRA or Under 21.5 Points

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