PropBetGuy's Thursday NBA Prop: Fade Brown in Game 5

PropBetGuy breaks down his top player prop bet for Heat vs. Celtics, including a play for Jaylen Brown.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Jaylen Brown, Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -115

Odds -115
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
Books Available FanDuel

While the Celtics took care of business in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals to keep their season alive, an abundance of questions remain for Game 5, and potentially beyond.

One key question revolves around Jaylen Brown and his level of play. The All-Star has not played up to his billing this series, staying under this line in three of the four games. In fact, he’s failed to clear 25 PRA in each of the last three games while only averaging 29.7 PRA since the start of the Conference Semifinals.

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The swarming Heat defense has been a significant reason for Brown’s decline in production in this series. The Cal product has shot 3/25 from deep against Miami, with only four wide open looks. Jimmy Butler and Gabe Vincent have done an admirable job slowing down Brown.

In addition to struggling with his shot, Brown hasn’t been scored off drives the way we’re accustomed to seeing. The seventh-year pro is only scoring 5.4 points per game off drives this series, compared to 8.8 in the regular season.

Brown was also the NBA’s fourth-leading scorer in transition during the regular season, but he’s had a tough time getting out on the break against the Heat, who did a solid job of limiting their own turnovers until Game 4.

I’m going with the fully-loaded PRA line here because Brown’s averaging almost three fewer rebounding chances per game this series. And on the passing front, he’s not been adept at getting his teammates in a solid scoring position against Miami’s defense.

More on the subjective side, Brown just hasn’t looked right – whether he’s unhappy with his diminished role, struggling to get going against a strong team defense, or a combination of the two. I’ll put my money on his struggles continuing tonight, as I’d play this line down to under 32.5 PRA.

Pick: Jaylen Brown Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 | Play to Under 32.5 PRA)

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