PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
NBA Player Prop & Pick
Talen Horton-Tucker, Under 16.5 Points
|Odds||u16.5 Points (-120)|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
Just like many teams at this stage in the season, the Jazz are dealing with injuries, specifically to their backcourt. Both Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton will miss tonight’s game, leaving Talen Horton-Tucker to pick up significant minutes.
However, even with a larger role, I’m looking to fade the combo guard on his points line tonight. The Iowa State product has registered at least 30 minutes played in only five games this season, and he stayed under this points line in four of those contests.
Horton-Tucker is best when he gets to the basket — he’s shooting only 33% on his jump shots this season, including 28% from 3. The Thunder’s on-ball defense is one of the league’s best, as they rank fifth in points per possession allowed to pick-and-roll ball-handlers.
Lu Dort (85th percentile in defensive BPM) figures to draw the matchup on THT tonight.
Even in an elevated role, Horton-Tucker should play more as a facilitator in this matchup. I have the fourth-year guard projected at 14 points tonight.
Pick: Talen Horton-Tucker Under 16.5 Points (-120 · Play to -135)
Jerami Grant, Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
|Odds||u30.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-113)|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
Grant is averaging just 27.5 PRA this season, but this number is meant to be reflective of the fact that Anfernee Simons is doubtful for tonight’s game. But even without the sharpshooter, I’m looking to fade Grant tonight.
The nine-year veteran has evolved into one of the league’s best jump-shooters, averaging the fourth-most points per game on the spot-up shot. However, the Hawks defend that playstyle well, allowing the fifth-fewest points per spot-up shot.
And with Grant failing to show much upside on the rebounding and assist front, I see this line as being a bit too inflated, especially with Damian Lillard garnering a massive offensive role.
I have Grant projected at 26 PRA tonight and would comfortably play this line down to under 29.5 PRA.
Pick: Jerami Grant Under 30.5 PRA (Play to 29.5)
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