PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Jalen Green, 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
|Prop||Under 29.5 PRA (-115)|
|Matchup||Rockets vs. Suns|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
With all but two teams off yesterday, there are 11 NBA games tonight on yet another massive Friday night slate. While the Suns and Rockets might not be the best matchup of the day, I do love the value I’m seeing on Jalen Green’s PRA line.
In his second season, Green is averaging 29.4 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA) for the upstart Rockets. However, when playing outside of Houston, the athletic wing has struggled.
In 13 road games this season, Green’s PRA average drops to 27.1, staying under this line in nine of those contests. He’s shooting a woeful 37.4% from the field on the road (30.7% from behind the arc) compared to 50.7% at home (and 40.7% from deep).
Playing in Phoenix isn’t exactly the ideal spot to cure road-game woes. The Suns rank third in Defensive Rating at home, while allowing both the fifth-fewest points per game (105.6) and the fifth-lowest field goal percentage (44.7%).
Green will likely be guarded by one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, Mikal Bridges. Green struggled against Bridges in their first matchup this season, shooting only 2-for-7 when guarded by the defensive whiz. Overall, Green shot 5-for-18 en-route to an inefficient 18 PRA against the Suns back in October.
With a gaudy spread and these two teams headed in opposite directions, there’s a pretty decent chance this game isn’t very competitive in the fourth quarter. I love having different paths to cash an under, which is what I’m seeing tonight. I have Green projected at 25 PRA and would play this line down to under 28.5 PRA.
Pick: Jalen Green Under 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115) | Play Down to 28.5