Pacers vs. Heat Odds
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Miami Heat host the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night as the NBA world inches closer to the trade deadline.
Miami is a team many expects to be active at the deadline. The Heat are 29-25, tied for the sixth playoff spot in the East — a crucial seed in avoiding the play-in tournament.
What the Pacers do is anyone’s guess. They’re currently tied for the 10th seed, right on the cusp of the play-in tournament.
Miami is a strong home favorite in this one. Here is a breakdown of the game, as well as how to bet Pacers vs Heat.
The Pacers have collapsed after a hot start to their season as they have gone 5-15 in the new year. Much of that can be attributed to an injury to star point guard Tyrese Haliburton but he is now back.
Since his return, the Pacers have still gone 1-2 with losses to the Cavs and Lakers and a win over the Sacramento Kings. Their offense has not been the same as it was to start the year but I think much of that can be explained by their extremely difficult schedule of late. The Pacers have played nine top-11 defenses in their past 12 games. They’ve played five of their last 12 games against top-three defenses (Bucks twice, Grizzlies twice, and Cavaliers).
Overall, they’ve now played the fifth-most difficult schedule of opposing defenses and rank 24th in offensive rating. I think this offense is likely being slightly underrated right now due to the extremely difficult schedule they have played over the past month.
This team still ranks sixth in offensive 3-point attempt rate and ninth in rim rate. They are getting great shots they just haven’t been falling at the clip they were to start the season. I think much of their offensive regression can be attributed to the absence of Haliburton and their schedule difficulty.
Unfortunately, the schedule will not be getting much easier here as they have to face the fourth-ranked Miami defense. Miami ranks as the No. 1 defense (109.6) since the start of the new year, but I think this may be a good matchup for them to start regressing.
The Heat defense is predicated on taking away the rim, but they struggle to run 3-point shooters off the line, ranking 29th in opponent 3-point attempt rate. This is a huge problem when facing this Pacers offense as they are constantly looking to find shooters and almost always have five shooters on the court at any given time.
I expect the Pacers to generate some good looks from three and their offense should have some success here.
The Heat have been the league’s best defense over this past month but they rank just 25th in offensive rating. It’s clear that they don’t really have the offensive talent to compete for a championship this year and I think that’s why we are hearing them in trade rumors fairly consistently.
A lot of their offensive struggles can be chalked up to shooting inefficiency as they rank dead-last in effective field goal % (50.9%) and last in 3-point percentage (32.0%) since the start of 2023. The Heat rank ninth in offensive 3-point attempt rate (37.5%) on the season so I expect their offense to begin to positively regress as they start making their threes more often.
They’ve played eight straight games where they shot below the 50th percentile of effective field goal percentage, according to Cleaning the Glass. In those games, they shot below the league-average from three in six of eight of those games and are most recently coming off a 25.8% 3-point shooting night against the Bucks.
The Heat have been terribly inefficient on offense, but I love this spot for them to see positive regression in that department. The Pacers’ defense has played the 18th-most difficult schedule of opposing offenses yet they still rank just 24th in defensive rating. They rank 29th in location effective field goal percentage, 27th in rim rate, and 16th in opponent 3-point attempt rate allowed.
This Pacers team is allowing great-looks but they have been fortunate that they have allowed just the 18th highest effective field goal percentage to opponents. The Pacers also rank dead-last in defensive rebound rate and 26th in FTA rate allowed to opponents.
This should be a great matchup between two rested teams that are both competing for a playoff spot. I expect the Heat to score at will, but I also don’t love the way their defense matches up with the Pacers.
I’ll be looking to back the Heat on the team total line at 114.5 and taking some of their alternate team totals while also likely being on the full game over at 222.5
Pick: Heat Team Total Over 114.5 (-105)