Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 2 Player Props to Target

Action Network contributor Jim Turvey breaks down the Game 4 matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves and shares his top betting pick.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds

Nuggets Odds -3.5
Timberwolves Odds +3.5
Over/Under 225
Time 9:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will try to escape elimination as they host the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.

The series is all but over (obligatory ‘no NBA team has ever come back from down 3-0 note), but bettors can still look for angles on Sunday.

These teams have played three times in the past week, so the players are beginning to know each other and the coach’s schemes are starting to crystalize.

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Denver Nuggets

Postseason series make for both tiny samples that carry lots of noise, but also the rare chance to see coaches truly play the adjustment game with each other. Certain players get schemed out, while others are given more room to work with.

For the Nuggets, this series has seen their superstar content to thrive in more of a facilitator role. Nikola Jokic is averaging just 20.0 points per game, down from 24.5 in the regular season. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have both seen their points per game increase in Jokic’s smaller scoring role. However, both players are shooting well above their season (and career) rates. We’ve seen this before from Murray, but we have no history with Porter.

Porter is shooting 50% from deep in this series. He’s a great shooter, but his career rate is 41.7%. Regardless, the books have bumped his points total up from 17.5 to 18.5. This isn’t a massive difference, especially since it is juiced to the under, but I like a small bet on Porter’s under.

Minnesota Timberwolves

On the flip side, the Wolves have a player whose numbers are slightly down and therefore present a small edge.

Rudy Gobert’s rebounds per game are down from 11.6 in the regular season to 10.3 in this series. That’s a small enough difference that it could definitely just be noise, but there’s also some reason to believe in the small drop. Jokic is one of the absolute best rebounders in the league. Plus, Gobert also has his hands more than full trying to slow down the two-time MVP.

In three regular season matchups, Gobert’s rebounding numbers absolutely against the Nuggets as he averaged just 5.7 rebounds per game and had a high of eight.

Finally, there’s the potential for foul trouble. Gobert fouled out of Game 3 and collected five fouls in Game 2. If he’s in and out of foul trouble in Game 4, that is obviously great for the under. The books haven’t really moved Gobert’s number and are leaving it at under 11.5 rebounds (-115).

Nuggets-Timberwolves Pick

A pair of player unders are the play for Sunday. Porter has been shooting a bit over his career numbers and the books moved his line instead of showing patience.

On the flip side, the books have failed to adjust for Gobert’s incredibly challenging rebounding matchup. Gobert is a three-quarters unit play, while Porter’s under is more of a lean (quarter unit).

Pick: Rudy Gobert Under 11.5 Rebounds | Michael Porter Jr. Under 18.5 Points