Game 6 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals series between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns tips off on Thursday night with neither team having won a game on the road this series after the Nuggets won their third game of the series at home on Tuesday.
With Game 6 being in Phoenix, the Suns come into this game as tight 2.5-point favorites, which clearly has more to do with the fact that they’re at home and less about how they’ve played in this series.
Because of the data surrounding that latter point, I’m banking on the Nuggets to take care of business and close this series out with their first road win of the series in Game 6.
NUGGETS VS. SUNS BETTING ODDS
Lines are accurate at the time of publication via DraftKings Sportsbook
NUGGETS VS. SUNS BEST BETS
Nuggets ML (+125, DraftKings)
In Game 5, the Suns’ offense (once again) left a lot to be desired, as the team shot 43.2% from the field with Devin Booker (28), Kevin Durant (26), and Deandre Ayton (14) the only players that scored in double figures.
This down game wasn’t just a blip on the radar, either. With Chris Paul sidelined, the Suns’ already present lack of depth is under even more of a magnifying glass and their bench simply has not provided the team with any support whatsoever.
Conversely, the Nuggets gave 16 or more minutes to only seven players in Game 5, with five of those seven scoring in double-figures, including a 25-point outburst from Bruce Brown. While Brown is not necessarily a threat to pop off as he did in Game 5 regularly, the sheer ability for the Nuggets to have their role players pop off like this is a luxury that the Suns’ can’t confidently say they have.
So far at home this series, the Suns have gotten massive games out of their superstar duo, with Booker averaging 41.5 points and Durant averaging 37.5 points across their pair of home games. The issue remains, however, as Landry Shamet’s 11.0 points per game at home marks the only other player averaging north of 7.0 points per game at home in the series.
I expect the Nuggets to hyper-focus on both Durant and Booker more than they have throughout this series in this game, willing to accept the fact that if they get beat by the Landry Shamets of the world, they can live with that.
With the Nuggets’ playing better in virtually every area, I’ll take their moneyline at plus money without hesitation.
Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.25 units.
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