Nets vs. Warriors Odds
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
Bad news for the Nets: Kevin Durant is out for this much-anticipated game against his former team. Good news: Kyrie Irving and James Harden look to be active.
The Nets have fallen to fifth in the Eastern Conference with Durant sideline. (Also, rumors around Harden’s potential departure in the offseason and the Philadelphia 76ers’ pursuit of him is certainly a distraction.) This has many bettors bearish on them in tonight’s game.
Will Irving and Harden be enough to overcome the Warriors’ excellence at home? Let’s see if there are any betting edges in tonight’s game.
Nets Playing Better Away From Brooklyn
The Nets have lost three games in a row, including two at home without Irving. Having him back for this game will be huge as he has looked incredible in the games he has played. He is averaging 23.4 points per game in his games played and is shooting over 50% from the field.
The trio of Irving, Harden and Patty Mills will be a handful for the Warriors to deal with, especially when they are down two of their top defenders, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala.
If you take a look at the Nets’ splits on the road, they are 17-6 straight up and 14-9 against the spread. They are third in Net Rating on the road (+5.6) compared to 24th at home (-1.1), per NBA Advanced Stats. Bottom line, they have performed so much better away from the Barclays Center this season.
LaMarcus Aldridge has strung together a few good games. For example, in the last game against Denver, he was in the starting line-up and scored 18 points. Nic Claxton is also expected to be back in the lineup after missing eight of the Nets’ last nine games. Both players should be able to exploit some of the Warriors’ lack of depth at center.
Warriors Rounding Back Into Form
Once again, Green will be out for the Warriors. He mentioned on TNT the other night that he was getting some shots up and will be seeing a specialist next week, so those are some good signs for the Warriors. Iguodala will also be missing his fourth straight game, so the Warriors are not completely healthy either.
In a controversial selection that has been widely debated throughout the NBA and fans, Andrew Wiggins was recently voted in as an All-Star starter. However, he responded well against the criticism, posting 19 points on 7-for-12 shooting in a win against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday night.
Klay Thompson has been shaking off the rust. After struggling the first few games back, he has hit over 50% of his shots in his previous two games. That helps the spacing for the Warriors and takes a lot of the workload off of Stephen Curry, who has been visibly struggling for weeks.
The Warriors have been comfortable at home, and this will be the final game of a seventh game homestand before they embark on a two-game road trip down to Texas.
Teams on the last game of a seven (or more) game homestand have gone gone 40-63-3 (38.8%) ATS dating back to the 1995-1996 season, per the Sports Data Query Language at Gimme the Dog. This is active as a fade against the Warriors as these teams tend to struggle as they get too comfortable at home and have a letdown spot before getting back on the road.
The Warriors are at home with Thompson back in the lineup against a Durant-less Nets that has been struggling.
I think many public bettors will look to be on the Warriors tonight; however, eight points is too many points to be giving this dangerous Nets team.
Do not discount Irving’s impact to this Nets’ lineup. The Nets have been awesome on the road and I expect them to keep it close against a potentially complacent Warriors team. My pick tonight is on the Nets at +8, down to +7.
Pick: Nets +8 (down to +7)