Nets vs. Mavericks Odds
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Nets are thriving, and the Mavericks are reeling backwards. That sets up an interesting matchup in Dallas, and one which should be pretty fun to watch on national television considering the line.
There’s reason to believe Brooklyn’s fun is about to end, and the Mavericks could be ready to get back to winning as they are getting set for a run of winnable games.
With that, let’s get into how to bet this one.
The Nets have won a remarkable nine out of 12 games despite dealing with an injury to Joe Harris and taking it in stride. There’s been plenty of good fortune in the run, however, with almost every win coming over a medicore team (Cavaliers x2, Magic x2, Pelicans, Thunder).
On top of that, Brooklyn beat a Minnesota team missing Karl-Anthony Towns and barely survived against the Knicks. This team’s shining moment was a 19-point win over Boston which came thanks to seven threes from Patty Mills, something that surely won’t happen again this season.
Because of this, it’s not surprising in the least to see the Nets have gone just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games. They’ve beaten said bad opponents in games which were a little too close for comfort and have lost outright as the favorite three times in that span.
Brooklyn is heavily reliant on shooting, which is why the loss of Harris hurts so much. The Nets are taking the second-fewest shots per game inside the restricted area and the fourth-most on average from mid-range.
The Nets are already running into some issues scoring in the nine games they’ve played without Harris, but Brooklyn has at least been able to hang on thanks to some semblance of defense. They are allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions over the span and posting a Net Rating of +2.0.
It’s not easy to be a Mavericks fan right now, but there should be good days ahead. Coming off a stretch in which Dallas has lost seven of nine, it can at least look forward to playing Memphis, Indiana, Oklahoma City, Charlotte and the Lakers in the coming weeks after a brutal gauntlet of games against some of the big boys in the NBA.
First comes this matchup with the Nets, and it’s one Dallas should have a fair shot at winning. We’ve touched on the issues shooting the ball for the Nets, and those should continue against a defense ranking among the top 10 in field goal percentage against mid-range jumpers and playing some modest defense given the schedule.
The Mavericks’ defensive rating sits 17th at 110.3 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games, but they had to play the Clippers and Suns twice, along with the Nuggets and the Wizards.
Dallas has also dealt with injury, and that’s the case here on Tuesday. Luka Dnocic (ankle, thumb) is listed as questionable along with Tim Hardaway, Jr. (knee) while Kristaps Porzingis (knee) is probable. Doncic should be ready to go, though, given he was able to rest on the second night of a back-to-back on Saturday.
Assuming the Mavericks are fully healthy, which seems probable, they will run into a team still struggling to find its identity and have a great chance to win.
I’ve said for a week now that the day of reckoning for the Nets is soon coming, when they’ll cease losing only against the spread and begin losing straight-up. Tuesday is likely one of those times.
The last three times the Nets have been favored by fewer than three points over this nine-game stretch of doom we’ve discussed, they’ve lost outright.
While I do think Dallas’ defense should see some positive regression against a Nets offense still struggling to shoot, and while I do like some of its wing defenders, I’m going to pass on the moneyline and take the points. It’s been a profitable experience over the last couple of weeks.
Pick: Mavericks +2.5 (-110)