Welcome back to Futures Friday!
Every week I’ll dive into futures to play based on where the value is at that point in the season. Each week we’ll make plays based on distributing a half-unit of value. Over the course of a season, it’ll add up to a sizable position.
Here are the futures bets I’m eying as we near the end of the fourth week of the season. For last week’s edition, click here and full a the full list of best I’ve made so far this season, check out this chart.
I am giving up the ghost. I bet heavily on Jalen Green in preseason on the idea that he would provide what ends up being the biggest deciding factor in Rookie of the Year each season: stat production.
But instead, he struggled to shoot and has suffered a strained hamstring that’s kept him out while the Rockets have gone on a league-best win streak.
I’m a little late on Mobley, but the impact is undeniable.
Mobley is checking all the boxes. He’s averaging 33.8 minutes per game, getting a consistent, healthy opportunity. He’s producing, averaging 14.0 points and 8.2 rebounds per game along with 1 steal and 2 blocks per game.
Only 16 players in NBA history have had that kind of a rookie season. He’s also shooting better from 3-point range than Cade Cunningham. He’s also doing so on an upstart Cavs team with playoff aspirations, something the other candidates cannot say.
Typically, players who help you win aren’t rewarded for Rookie of the Year. But watching Mobley, he makes winning plays consistently on both ends of the floor. Smart rotations, smart passes, high effort plays. That’s not enough if you don’t produce, but he’s produced enough.
I’m not willing to bet on him yet because of the amount of players in his way, but it should be noted that Alperen Sengun is +6600 and leads rookies in points per 36 minutes, rebounds per 36 minutes, is second in assists per 36 minutes, and leads in PER, Win Shares, and BPM.
However, he hasn’t cracked 20 minutes since before Thanksgiving. If the Rockets clear room for him to play, his value will skyrocket. But can he catch up to Mobley?
We bet Miami to win the East early on this season when they were rolling. This provides a hedge against that without cancelling it out.
The Hawks have had the eighth-toughest schedule so far, Miami the 13th. The Heat have had an array of injuries including Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler along with Markieff Morris after the Nikola Jokic hit from behind.
However, the Hawks lost Deandre Hunter for two months and generally have been lost but still have a better Adjusted Net Rating. The Heat’s halfcourt offense ranks 15th and even that seems generous. They struggle to score consistently.
Atlanta had a rough start but is stabilizing, Miami started off hot but looks like it’s regressing.
Let’s grab value on the Hawks with 28.57% implied odds with Atlanta just 1.5 games back for the division lead.