The NCAA tournament is a week away and the NBA season has about a month left, which means we are officially in the dog days of the basketball season. That fact can make a random Tuesday night in the association seem insignificant, but our crew of bettors can always spot some value.
Check out their in-depth analysis and betting picks for those matchup below.
NBA Odds & Picks
|Click on a game to skip ahead|
|Brooklyn Nets vs. Charlotte Hornets||7 p.m. ET|
|Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder||8 p.m. ET|
Brooklyn Nets vs. Charlotte Hornets
|Pick||Miles Bridges Over 3.5 AST | 5+ AST | 6+ AST|
|Tipoff||7 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
Joe Dellera: Miles Bridges has had an excellent season so far and he has improved every facet of his game. One thing that’s stood out recently is his passing ability.
On the season he is averaging 3.7 assists per game on 7.1 potential assists, but over his last 10 games he is averaging 4.5 assists with 8.4 potential assists, per NBA Advanced Stats. He’s seen an uptick in his playmaking without Gordon Hayward who has missed these last 10 games.
Now, Bridges gets a matchup with the Nets who have one of the worst defenses in the league while playing at the 11th-fastest Pace in the league. This is a Pace-up opportunity for the Hornets who like to run to begin with and there should be plenty of opportunities for Bridges to set up his teammates.
Currently, his prop line is set at 3.5, a number he’s cleared in seven of his last 10 games. But given his increased playmaking and those potential assists, I think we should take at least 5+ at (+195 at Bet365), a number he has cleared in six of his last 10.
If that’s not available to you, but 6+ (+320) is, that’s also a fine play — he’s coming off consecutive games with six assists and has hit this in 4-of-10, yet the implied probability of those odds would only indicate a 23.81% chance of hitting. There’s value here.
If you can play all of these lines, I’d split my bet 60%, 30% and 10%.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
|Tipoff||8 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
Brandon Anderson: All season long, I’ve been riding the underdog Thunder for a profit.
It’s not pretty in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are quietly undergoing a “Process” all their own right in plain sight, stockpiling draft picks and playing young players as they build toward a future in … 2025? 2030? It’s hard to say.
But even as they lose, the Thunder are playing hard. Remember, it’s the franchises that tank, not players. These young guys are still out there trying to prove themselves each night, playing hard and trying to earn a place in this league.
Perhaps that’s why the Thunder are 16-7-1 ATS this season as double-digit underdogs, covering an impressive 70% of the time. That includes 11-3-1 ATS (79%) when the opponent has won at least 58% of their games like the Bucks, and it includes 9-1 ATS (90%) when the opponent has a season-long ATS record at 50% or below. The Bucks are at 44% and continue to sleepwalk through the season, so I like this spot for the Thunder.
If we’re backing the Thunder, we’re expecting another big game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. With Josh Giddey out the last five games, SGA has been a monster at 33.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. He’s scored at least 29 points in all five games with at least seven boards in all but one 37-point loss that slightly limited his minutes.
If you want to play just the Thunder cover, you have my blessing. But if you want to get more aggressive, you can parlay an OKC cover plus at least 29 points and seven rebounds from Gilgeous-Alexander for +700 at DraftKings. Remember, those events are correlated. If the Thunder are close enough to cover, it almost certainly means big minutes and a big night from SGA.
I’ll play the cover itself to +12.5, but this line should only rise at we get closer to tip since the public almost always backs these big favorites. Let’s see if the feisty Thunder can hang close again.