Our NBA crew is betting two games tonight and they’ve made three picks across those matchups. You can read their analysis on those games below.
NBA Odds & Picks
|Click on a game to skip ahead|
|76ers vs. Knicks Prop||7:30 p.m. ET|
|76ers vs. Knicks Moneyline||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Warriors vs. Thunder Spread||8 p.m. ET|
|Pick||RJ Barrett over 1.5 3s (-110)|
|Tipoff||7:30 p.m. ET|
Joe Dellera: I wrote about the Knicks as a whole in their contest against the 76ers tonight and spoke about an evolution in their offense: this Knicks team is taking 3-point shots at a league leading rate.
One player who has not benefited from this change yet is RJ Barrett who has struggled out of the gate. Despite his struggles, though, he’s consistently garnered good looks from the floor. He’s shooting 21.1% from 3-point range this season, but he’s taken at least five shots from deep in each game this season. Barrett is a good shooter and displayed this over the last two seasons and even finished last season shooting 43.5% from 3 after the All-Star Break.
With a line set at 1.5 3s we are getting a prime buy-low opportunity on RJ. Over his 30 games, RJ has cleared 1.5 3s in 21 of them. I’d play this up to -150.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks
|Pick||Knicks ML (-120)|
Kenny Ducey: The Sixers have had one of the more lethal offenses in the league through a few games, checking in with an offensive rating north of 116, but the defenses they’ve faced (Pelicans, Nets, Thunder) don’t exactly blow you away. The Knicks, who have carried some of their momentum on defense created under Tom Thibodeau over to 2021, will pose a better challenge for Philadelphia.
This is also going to be a big clash of styles. In the early going, Philadelphia ranks dead last in Pace and has taken just 34 3-pointers per game, which is tied for 21st in the NBA. The Knicks have taken more threes than any team, and rank right around the middle of the pack with a 101.33 Pace rating.
All of this equates to an advantage for the Knicks. Philadelphia shouldn’t be able to dictate the pace of this game, and also shouldn’t be able to really get comfortable in this one. The Sixers have avoided shooting 3s because they get so much out of Joel Embiid in the post and some of their slashing wings. The Knicks have allowed just 51.5% shooting inside 10 feet so far this season, which is the third-best mark in the league.
Embiid is also carrying a knee injury into this game and is listed as questionable. There is the added bonus of the big man potentially missing the contest or being limited. (Andre Drummond is also listed as questionable behind him.)
I just don’t see a way for Philadelphia to consistently score here, and with the pace ramping up a bit and the Knicks shooting 3s against a defense that has allowed 107.2 points per 100 possessions, I think New York can take this one at home.
|Tipoff||8 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
Brandon Anderson: Don’t look now, but the Warriors might be back.
They’re bombing from deep, with Jordan Poole the newest Splash Brother, and the ball is zipping around in attack while Draymond Green mans the defense.
Golden State’s offense ranks top-five in the NBA so far. The Warriors are playing faster than ever and have a pretty unique shot profile, ranking top-seven in 3s and 3-point percentage while also leading the league in free throws made and attempted. That makes for very efficient offense. It makes for Warriors basketball.
The Thunder are very bad. There’s just no way around it. Oklahoma City is a super young team, and even young star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has really struggled so far this season trying to do too much on his own. The one good veteran defender on this team, Derrick Favors, will not play tonight. The Thunder rank 29th in Offensive Rating, per Basketball Reference, and 29th in Defensive Rating. There are 30 teams, lest you forgot.
The Thunder have lost all three games this season by 12, 21, and 33 points. That’s an average defeat of 22 PPG. The Warriors play fast so that means more possessions and more chances for the better team to prove its dominance. I have no problem laying up to double-digits here in a game the Warriors should win easily.