Sunday features a small four-game evening slate, and we have found value on them. Our NBA Prop Model has two player props that look fantastic tonight for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nic Claxton. Sunday also is known for having plenty of players sit, so make sure to monitor the news the closer we get to lock as several more player props may populate in our Prop Model.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Under 11.5 Assists and Rebounds (-104)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Thunder have won six of their last eight games as the combo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey is ascending to one of the league’s best guard duos. This is a much tougher spot for the Thunder to compete as the Nuggets have the best record in the Western Conference and have won nine consecutive games. The Nuggets are also five-point favorites at home in this matchup.
Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged a career-high 30.6 points per game while shooting a very impressive 50.7% from the field. However, his peripherals have seen a drop off. With Giddey in the lineup, Gilgeous-Alexander is only averaging 4.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists, which combines for 10.2 per game.
The Thunder play at the third-fastest pace in the league, but the Nuggets play much slower, especially if Nikola Jokic suits up. The Nuggets also rank fifth in Rebounding Percentage which makes it hard to imagine Gilgeous-Alexander getting too many boards tonight. For the Thunder to stay competitive in this spot, Gilgeous-Alexander will need to be aggressive scoring the ball.
Our Prop Model has Gilgeous-Alexander projected for only 9.5 rebounds and assists tonight, which is well below this prop line of 11.5. DraftKings has juice on the under at 10.5 rebounds and assists, if you would rather take that route. Either way, bet on the under for Gilgeous-Alexander’s peripherals in this spot.
Nic Claxton, Over 2.5 Blocks (-150)
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Looking to set a Nets franchise record, Nic Claxton has quickly become one of the league’s elite shot blockers. Claxton has recorded 10 straight games with three or more blocks and could set the franchise record if he hits this over again tonight. Claxton is averaging a career-high 2.7 blocks per game this year.
The Nets have really struggled without Kevin Durant this season. They have lost four of their last five games without the 12-time NBA All-Star. Despite the Warriors struggling all year with a .500 record, they are 7.5-point home favorites against the Nets as they still have an impressive 17-5 home record.
The Warriors have not allowed many blocks per game this season, but Claxton has shown block upside even in more difficult matchups. During this 10-game stretch, Claxton has averaged 4.5 blocks per game, which is well over this 2.5-block prop line. Let’s bet on him continuing his insane block numbers with this over.
Our Prop Model has Claxton projected for only 2.3 blocks tonight, likely due to the Warriors only allowing 4.2 blocks per game, which ranks as the sixth-lowest in the league. The Warriors lead the league in Pace this season as this game has a projected total of 237. There will be plenty of opportunities for Claxton to get three or more blocks in this contest.