A pair of Game 6’s are on the schedule for Friday night. First, the Milwaukee Bucks will look to close it out on their home floor and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for a second consecutive season. Then, the Warriors will look to bounce back after an embarrassing performance against the Grizzlies in Game 5 and advance to the Western Conference Finals.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jrue Holiday, Over 1.5 Steals (-135)
|Celtics vs. Bucks||Bucks -1.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
The Bucks stole Game 5 in Boston to take a commanding 3-2 series lead. The Bucks trailed by 16 points in the 4th quarter before they fought back to claim the victory. Jrue Holiday was massive for the Bucks down the stretch, especially defensively. Holiday had two huge defensive plays against Marcus Smart, recording both a block and a steal.
In this series against the Celtics, Holiday is not only averaging 40.2 minutes per game, but is also averaging 21.8 points, 7 rebounds and 6.4 assists. However, his biggest contribution has come on the defensive end. In fact, in the five games so far against the Celtics, Holiday has gone over 2.5 blocks and steals combined four times.
In the playoffs, Holiday has a total of 16 steals for the Bucks. Furthermore, Holiday has at least three steals in three of the five games against the Celtics. In this series alone, Holiday is averaging 2.4 steals per game. I expect the defensive intensity to continue from Holiday in this game.
Stephen Curry, Over 27.5 Points (-110)
|Grizzlies vs. Warriors||Warriors -8|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | ESPN|
The Warriors are coming off an embarrassing loss in Game 5 having lost by 39 points in Memphis. Now, the series heads back to San Francisco where the Warriors can close it out and clinch a spot in the Wester Conference Finals. I am expecting the Warriors to respond in a big way, led by their superstar point guard, Stephen Curry.
There is something about home cooking for Curry in the playoffs this year. In this series against the Grizzlies, Curry has scored 30 or more points in both home games. In fact, dating back to the first round against the Denver Nuggets, Curry scored 30 or more in two of the three home games.
Furthermore, Curry is shooting 48.4% from the floor in home games and makes close to four 3-point shots while shooting 39% from beyond the arc. I believe this is a game where Curry will lead the Warriors to victory and step up in a big way after being run of the gym in Game 5.