Tonight playoffs slate features another set of second-round Game 1s, as the Miami Heat host the Philadelphia 76ers in a battle of who’s healthier, while the Phoenix Suns battle the Dallas Mavericks, with both teams now fully healthy.
There are so many awesome props, but I chose one from each game.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Bam Adebayo, Over 18.5 Points (-108)
|Heat vs. 76ers||Heat -7.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
The Miami Heat won in a gentleman’s sweep over the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, while the Philadelphia 76ers won in six games over the Toronto Raptors.
However, the big news for both teams is the injuries. The Heat will be playing without at least Kyle Lowry in Game 1, while the 76ers will be playing without Joel Embiid.
Embiid’s absence by far the biggest news of this series, especially since it sounds like he’ll miss at least the first two games. That will make the 76ers much weaker with their interior defense. There are so many props to like in this game, despite the total being only 208.5 points, which is extremely low.
The Heat are not only without Lowry, but Tyler Herro is also questionable and Jimmy Butler doesn’t seem to be 100% either. This will open the door for Bam Adebayo to be more aggressive offensively.
Adebayo only averaged 12.4 points per game in round one, but the 76ers do not have the size to properly defend him. The most field goals that Adebayo attempted in Round 1 was 11, which he did in back-to-back games. He had 20 points and 11 rebounds in the close-out victory over the Hawks in Game 5. In his last game against the 76ers where they did not have Embiid, Adebayo had 22 points on 9-for-14 from the field.
Our model has Adebayo projected for 19.4 points tonight, which provides some value on the over. I wouldn’t get too carried away since we are already getting nice value on the over at 18.5 points.
Adebayo should feast in this matchup without having to guard Embiid. Look for him to be extra aggressive.
Chris Paul, Over 9.5 Assists (-145)
|Suns vs. Mavericks||Suns -5.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | TNT|
After having the New Orleans Pelicans take them six games, the Phoenix Suns now host the Dallas Mavericks, who they have swept during the regular season. Both teams are healthy, so this should be a great series. We’ll see if Luka Doncic can keep the Mavericks competitive.
Last series, Chris Paul had arguably his worst game in the playoffs and then followed that up shortly after with his best game. Paul had 33 points while shooting a perfect 14-for-14 from the field in the series-clinching win over the Pelicans. Only Wilt Chamberlain has made more baskets without a miss.
Devin Booker was injured in game three and then came back in game six, but was basically a decoy as he was still hobbled with a hamstring injury. Giving the extra rest he should be near 100% now. This is big for not only the Suns, but for Paul and his assists. Booker led the team with 26.8 points per game.
Paul led the league in assists averaging 10.8 per game while averaging 14.7 points which was a career-low. Paul has always been a pass-first point guard, but he has taken that to an extreme this season. He only attempted 11.3 field goals, which is also a career-low. He is the Point God for a reason.
Since his return from injury, Paul has had 10 or more assists in 10 of those 13 games. Over that time, he is averaging 11.6 assists per game.
Our model has Paul projected for 12.3 assists tonight. There are a few books offering this at 10.5 with plenty of juice on the over, and I would definitely take those bets as well.